The 2026 FIFA World Cup got underway Thursday as Mexico faced South Africa at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, marking the start of a 39-day, 104-match tournament that US sportsbooks are banking on to become the largest soccer betting event in American history. Played entirely on North American soil for the first time, the competition gives US bettors something that no prior World Cup ever offered: prime-time access, familiar venues, and a fully developed legal wagering market that covers nearly two-thirds of the country.
Gaming research firm Eilers and Krejcik estimates a base-case legal US betting handle of approximately $2.82 billion, with upside scenarios reaching beyond $4.3 billion. Deutsche Bank projects a $3.3 billion US handle, with FanDuel expected to capture around $1.3 billion of that figure and DraftKings close behind at roughly $1.1 billion. For context, those numbers would rival or exceed the Super Bowl and March Madness as the biggest single betting windows the US market has ever processed.
The Market Has Grown Dramatically Since 2022
During the 2022 Qatar World Cup, only about 40 percent of the US population had access to legal sports betting. That figure now stands at roughly 65 percent, meaning tens of millions of additional bettors have come online since the last tournament. Sportradar has estimated that 90 percent of Americans who plan to bet on the 2026 event will be doing so on a World Cup for the first time.
Live betting is expected to be a major driver of handle. Soccer naturally lends itself to in-game wagering given its flowing, low-scoring structure, and US operators have invested heavily in same-game parlays, player props, and live markets since 2022. The ability to watch and bet on matches in real time — not in the middle of the night as was often the case with the Qatar tournament — is expected to increase engagement significantly.
Spain and France are co-favorites to win the trophy, each priced around +450 at major US books. England checks in at +650, and defending champion Argentina is listed around +1000. The United States enters its group stage opener Friday against Paraguay as a narrow home favorite, and a deep American run would almost certainly push the handle toward the top of projections.
Prediction Markets Are In on the Action Too
The World Cup is also generating record activity on prediction market platforms. Kalshi reported weekly trading volume of approximately $7 billion across all of its markets, a 13 percent week-over-week increase driven largely by World Cup demand. The platform currently lists nearly 500 unique World Cup markets. DraftKings Predictions, the sportsbook's prediction market arm, recently announced $3.1 billion in annualized consumer volume — a 24 percent increase from the prior month. Robinhood and FanDuel's FanDuel Predicts platform have also expanded their soccer coverage ahead of the tournament.
BetMGM is among the operators running targeted World Cup promotions, offering $500,000 in bonus bets to be split among bettors every time the US national team scores a goal. The promotion is designed to generate engagement around matches involving the host country and convert casual viewers into repeat bettors.
On a global scale, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon projects total worldwide betting on the tournament could exceed $50 billion, up from an estimated $35 billion during the 2022 event. The increase reflects both US market growth and the expanded reach of regulated and unregulated wagering across the 48 participating nations. For US operators, the next 39 days represent both a revenue opportunity and a customer acquisition window that will shape the competitive landscape of the domestic betting market heading into the fall.
