FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Picks for August 8

Tuesday’s are the best day of the week during the MLB season, thanks to FanDuel’s $5 Dinger Tuesday promotion. This article will break down the promo, show you how to attack it, and give some picks to be profitable!

This year I’ll be tracking my wagers here on eatwatchbet.com. This will include tracking units ($25) won as well as free bet conversions.

How it Works

First, make sure you OPT-IN on Fanduel for the promotion. Then, for every game in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you get a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every single game on the Tuesday slate.

How to Win

We’ll look to pick a player from just about every game. We don’t need to worry about the -EV nature of Fanduel’s home run prices, as the value of the promotion creates an inherently +EV environment for this type of wager.

We are going to look to target games with higher totals, as there is more expected scoring. While we’ll get into more specifics outlined with the picks, in general, you want to look for the perfect storm of hot hitters, poor pitching, high totals, and good weather.

Total result:
Our season total is now at +$321.65 (12.86 units). I used all 50 bonus bets on Daniil Medvedev to win ATP Toronto at 4/1.

Keep in mind, you’ll need to use free bets within one week, meaning that these will expire tomorrow if you haven’t used them yet.

Weather Report

As more and more accounts get hit with the $50 per day max on Fanduel, we’ll look to limit our selections and prioritize games with the most home runs projected.

Today looks like it could be a big day with good hitting conditions in multiple ballparks across the country. I’m counting five stadiums with double digit wind speeds blowing outward and temperatures above 75 degrees. Today will be an ideal day to look for pricing outliers on FanDuel where we can pick up some value.

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates: 7:05pm EST

We’ll go to Pittsburgh this evening where we should get winds blowing outwards at 10+mph and a temperature approaching 80 at first pitch. The Braves are the league’s top home run team so we’ll look to pick off a good price on one of their numerous sluggers.

I land on Ozzie Albies here, who’s hit two home runs in his past three games. Albies is tied for second on the team with 26 home runs this year, but often has bigger home run prices due to the starpower on this Braves team. Albies also suffers from hard contact inconsistency with a hard contact rate at just 37.8%.

That being said, when Albies is seeing the ball well he’s a great homer candidate. He’s second on the team in average launch angle at 16.5% and is quite an aggressive hitter, only walking 6.5% of the time. He’ll be up against Mitch Keller, who is a tale of two halves in the 2023 MLB season.

Keller was an all-star this year but has struggled in his last four starts coming out of the break. He’s allowed nine or more hits in three of those starts and has given up a total of seven home runs in the four-game stretch. He’s struggled more against lefties this year with a .355 wOBA against vs. .255 against righties.

Albies, a switch hitter, is notably better from the right side, however, has 21 of his 26 home runs from the left side. Out of the two-hole Albies should see four or five at bats against Pirates pitching tonight. Most sportsbooks have Albies home run price at between +400 and +425, so we’ll pick up some value here taking FanDuel’s +460.

Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers: 8:10pm

While this isn’t a weather spot (Milwaukee plays indoors), we have an opportunity to go up against an old friend in Kyle Freeland. Freeland is a player that unfortunately knows his role on this Rockies team and it’s to take the mound and give them as many innings as possible despite consistently poor results.

If you can believe it, Freeland is actually worse away from Coors Field, with a 5.53 ERA on the road and a 4.55 ERA at home. He struggled mightily against right-handed hitters with a .375 wOBA against in the 2023 campaign. I think these struggles continue against the Brewers who are making a final push to lock up the NL Central.

I’ll back William Contreras in this one, who’s been the Brewers second best hitter thus far this season. I’d expect at least one of the Brewers’ right-handed bats to take Freeland deep, but no one has been as consistent with contact as Contreras.

Contreras’ biggest issue in 2023 is his 55% ground ball rate. That being said, Contreras has been seeing the ball better of late, with multiple XBHs in his last seven. Contreras +320

See the full list below: