Happy Dinger Tuesday! FanDuel has brought back one of our favorite promotions for the 2024 MLB season, albeit with some added restrictions. Let's go over the rules real quick.
How FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Works
Firstly, make sure to OPT-IN on FanDuel for the promotion. Then, for every in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you’ll receive a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every game on the Tuesday slate.
The caveat here is that FanDuel introduced a new $25 limit in free bets per day (last year it was $50). Some accounts, perhaps newer ones, might still have the original promotion that has no limit on free bets. Because of this, we’ll only look to be releasing 2-3 bets per day.
I’ll be tracking all my home run plays here at EWB as well as the free bet conversions. Last year we picked up +17.3 units betting home runs or $432.5! (Tracking $25 as a unit given the promotion parameters)
Weather Report for May 14
Only one game on the radar that looks to be avoided is Toronto at Baltimore. It looks like there will be a light rain throughout the game if it even gets played at all. Boston looks like it could be a target spot with winds out to left center.
Bet: Tyler O’Neill +440
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
I’m looking at the Boston game with our first selection, trying to take advantage of the good weather conditions. I’m looking at Tyler O’Neill in this one as he seemed to get back on track yesterday with a home run against the Rays. O’Neill started the season extremely strong but hasn’t found the same success since colliding with Rafael Devers about a month ago.
Aaron Civale takes the bump for the Rays, who has been having a rough season despite a very strong start. His ERA has ballooned to 5.88 and he’s given up a home run in each of his last three starts, failing to get through five innings in his last four.
Civale struggled with the White Sox and Mets in those starts, so we can’t point to the competition as the reason for his struggles. Civale shows flashes of potential, highlighted by a solid, but not elite, 18% K-BB ratio. His biggest problem is his fastball which is more of a secondary pitch to his sinker/cutter combo.
When he does throw the fastball, he tends to leave it up and 92mph avg velocity on the pitch isn’t getting by hitters. I like Tyler O’Neill at +440 offered at Fanduel to take advantage of a decent matchup in a positive hitting environment at Fenway tonight.
Bet: Wily Adames +480
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Former top prospect Quinn Priester has gotten crushed early in his major league career and I think the trend continues. He’s struggling to generate strikeouts at this level with just a 12.6% K rate, along with a 21.8 whiff rate which is average at best.
He does keep the ball on the ground in general, which isn’t great for our dinger prospects, but when he does give up fly balls they are leaving the park at an alarming rate. He throws a sinker/breaking ball combination, but when he leaves the sinker up, it’s getting crushed thus far in 2024.
We opposed Priester last game but didn’t come home. I’m staying on this matchup after he gave up a home run to Kevin Pillar last time out. Priester’s ERA is somehow just 3.88 despite the massive struggle he’s had from a contact and swing and miss perspective.
I’ll continue to fade Priester and will be doing so with Wily Adames at +480 in this one. Both Contreras and Gary Sanchez are showing up as value for me as well, but without the Brewers lineup I’m sticking with Adames at the moment.
I would imagine Contreras gets the start at C and Sanchez usually sits against RHP unless Contreras needs a day off. That being said, Adames still puts up great power numbers.
5/14/24 Free Bet conversion: Bet $25 in bonus bets on the Athletics +155 tonight.
