Happy Dinger Tuesday! FanDuel has brought back one of our favorite promotions for the 2024 MLB season, albeit with some added restrictions. Check out the rules below:
How FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Works
Firstly, make sure to OPT-IN on Fanduel for the promotion. Then, for every in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you’ll receive a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every game on the Tuesday slate.
The caveat here is that FanDuel introduced a new $25 limit in free bets per day (last year it was $50). Some accounts, perhaps newer ones, might still have the original promotion that has no limit on free bets. Because of this, we’ll only look to be releasing 2-3 bets per day.
I’ll be tracking all my home run plays here at EWB as well as the free bet conversions. Last year we picked up +17.3 units betting home runs or $432.5! (Tracking $25 as a unit given the promotion parameters)
Weather Report for June 4th
Nothing standing out on the weather report this afternoon on our first Dinger Tuesday in June. There will be some storms that could impact the Cubs game where wind could be blowing out slightly to left field. It looks like they’ll play a full 9 tonight regardless.
Live player props data coming soon for Ketel Marte.
Ketel Marte +360
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
For our first bet I’m taking a look at the Diamondbacks vs. Giants game, where I think we have identified a big advantage for a hitter. Kyle Harrison takes the mound today for the Giants having a mediocre season thus far in 2024. He’s posted a 4-2 record with a 4.15 ERA, which is respectable thus far. That being said, I don’t think Harrison’s underlying stats are indicative of better days ahead and instead think the lefty could be in for some trouble.
Harrison’s FIP and xERA are closer to five, which suggests his ERA pace is fairly accurate if not slightly lucky thus far. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats with a 21.3% K rate and and 11.2% swinging strike rate. His 7.8% BB rate isn’t horrible, but combined with the lack of swing and miss results in a very pedestrian 13.5% K-BB rate. When a pitcher isn’t missing bats you want to see a high ground ball rate and a low rate of hard contact.
Harrison doesn’t have either of these, which suggests that his numbers could look pretty ugly if a couple of these batted balls found holes in the outfield or the seats. I have Ketel Marte circled in this one, as he’s been one of the leagues best against left handed pitching in 2024.
He’s hit nine of his twelve home runs against left handed pitching including two against the Mets on Sunday. Marte has been lights out swinging from the right side of the plate with a 199 wRC+ and .385 .ISO against lefties.
I love this matchup for Marte, getting a left-handed pitcher who gives up too much hard contact. I bet him at +360!
Live player props data coming soon for Jurickson Profar.
Jurickson Profar +870
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels
Here’s a bet that might end up being pretty popular on Twitter given the historical matchup between these two, but here’s why I actually am in agreement on the play.
Patrick Sandoval has been poor this year, despite having decent swing and miss in his game. Sandoval has also trended poorly, giving up five home runs in his last 3 starts. His command has just been way too poor in 2024, leading to him to throw hittable pitches to avoid adding to his 10% BB rate.
We’ll be going with Jurickson Profar against Sandoval, who’s quietly been the Padres best hitter this year. Profar has more power from the right side, hitting four of his eight home runs against lefties in 2024, in far fewer plate appearances. Profar has hit to a 177 wRC+ against lefties in 2024 with a .200 .ISO.
The power numbers don’t jump out at you for Profar, but he has hit two home runs off Sandoval in his career. Profar is a patient hitter who would force Sandoval to give him something to hit. Being the leadoff hitter on a road team is also an added benefit for our bet, given he’ll grab an extra at bat compared to the field.
It’s still a bit of a long shot but I’m surprised to see Profar at +870 at FanDuel, pretty ahead of most projections.
