Happy Dinger Tuesday! FanDuel has brought back one of our favorite promotions for the 2024 MLB season, albeit with some added restrictions.
How FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Works
Firstly, make sure to OPT-IN on FanDuel for the promotion. Then, for every in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you’ll receive a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every game on the Tuesday slate.
The caveat here is that FanDuel introduced a new $25 limit in free bets per day (last year it was $50). Some accounts, perhaps newer ones, might still have the original promotion that has no limit on free bets. Because of this, we’ll only look to be releasing 2-3 bets per day.
I’ll be tracking all my home run plays here at EWB as well as the free bet conversions. Last year we picked up +17.3 units betting home runs or $432.5! (Tracking $25 as a unit given the promotion parameters)
Weather Report
We could see quite a bit of scattered rain across the slate this evening but there should be enough games unaffected for us to have some valuable picks. There aren’t any stadiums to target today based on the report.
Wrigley Field (Chicago) has 10mph winds blowing to center, however, will have some rain potential in the game. Coors Field (Colorado) is always a target for Dinger Tuesdays but we’ll have 20-30 mph gusts blowing sideways in the stadium.
Bet: Elly de la Cruz +450
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds
Zac Gallen takes the hill for the Snakes on his third straight road start. He’s been less than stellar in both of those appearances, allowing two home runs in each start to the Mariners and Giants. Here he gets a Reds team littered with pop, in the friendly hitting environment in Cincinnati.
I don’t want to make too much of Gallen's home/road splits in such a short sample size, but Seattle and San Francisco are known to play more as pitchers’ parks and neither of those offenses have started 2024 strong. I’m concerned with Gallen’s slight drop in average fastball velocity and the increasing hard hit% on that pitch.
Gallen’s splits are as expected, with lefties hitting him slightly better. Looking at the Cincy squad, look no further than Elly de la Cruz, sporting a 179 wRC+ against right handed bats in 2024. There’s a significant argument to be made that Elly should just give up switch-hitting and stick to the left side, but that’s neither here nor there.
+450 on de la Cruz is in line with the market and looks like value given the inflated line of going up against a star pitcher. The forecast shows rain for this one, but I think we’ll get a slightly delayed start and then pretty average conditions for the majority of the night.
Bet: Mickey Moniak +560
Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Former top prospect Quinn Priester has gotten crushed early in his major league career and I think the trend continues. He’s struggling to generate strikeouts at this level with just a 15% K rate, along with a 25.2 whiff rate which is average at best.
He does keep the ball on the ground in general, which isn’t great for our dinger prospects, but when he does give up fly balls they are leaving the park at an alarming rate. He throws a sinker/breaking ball combination, but when he leaves the sinker up, it’s getting crushed thus far in 2024.
He’s been burned by lefties more often this year, despite his sinker/curveball combo being more effective than his sinker/slider combo that he uses against righties. The Angels offense has struggled without Mike Trout, but I like the matchup for one of their left handed bats to go yard.
I’m looking at Mickey Moniak in this one, who looks to be trending upwards. Moniak has disappointed thus far in 2024, after an encouraging 2023 season saw him hit 14 home runs. Although the sample size is small, I’m encouraged by a few factors in Moniak’s game.
He’s been more patient at the plate, cutting down his strikeouts, reducing his whiff rate, and increasing his walk rate. Although the numbers themselves still aren’t great when compared to league averages, he’s making improvements in an Angels lineup that isn’t offering much protection.
Moniak has six hits in his last four games, including a home run, which I’m hoping is more indicative of his skill level. We’re getting +560 for the two-hole hitter with decent pop against a starter who’s severely struggling to start the year. I’ll take those odds.
4/30/24 Free Bet conversion: Bet $25 in bonus bets on the Mavericks ML at +140 tonight.
