Dodgers vs. Reds Same Game Parlay: Miguel Rojas Stolen Base Anchors a +900 Longshot Ticket

The Dodgers roll into Great American Ball Park as monster -220 favorites tonight, and honestly, with Tarik Skubal on the mound against a Reds lineup that’s been feasting on the ball but not exactly living up to its offensive billing, it’s easy to see why. Cincinnati sits at +176, the total is projected around 8, and the over lean is doing plenty of talking. This is the kind of matchup where the board is basically begging you to build something bigger than a straight moneyline bet.

So let’s have some fun with it. We’re stacking a same game parlay anchored by one of the sneakiest angles on the slate: Miguel Rojas to steal a base at a jaw-dropping +900 price. Layer in the Dodgers’ offense feasting on Nick Lodolo and a Skubal strikeout prop, and this parlay checks every box — value, correlation, and entertainment.

The Anchor Leg: Miguel Rojas Stolen Base (+900)

This is the leg that makes the whole parlay worth building. Rojas isn’t a burner by any stretch, but he’s swiped a handful of bags for the Dodgers this year and shows up as a real, live threat any time he reaches base against a shaky battery. Cincinnati’s Lodolo has never been known for controlling the running game, and with a 1.53 WHIP this season, Rojas is going to get chances to reach — the question is just whether he pulls the trigger.

At +900, the market is pricing this as a true longshot, but the model here likes it far more than that number suggests — call it a 78% confidence lean on a play that’s paying nearly 10-to-1. Even in a parlay where it’s not doing the heavy lifting on its own, a leg like this is exactly what turns a solid same-game bet into a boom-or-bust ticket with serious upside.

Rojas has been on base plenty lately, going multiple games this month with a hit and a walk mixed in, and he already has stolen base attempts on his 2026 ledger. Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz gets all the highlight-reel legs, but don’t sleep on the Dodgers’ 37-year-old veteran picking his spot late in a game the Dodgers are heavily favored to control.

Dodgers Offense Feasting on Nick Lodolo

Lodolo takes the ball for Cincinnati sporting a 3-4 record, a 5.12 ERA, and a 1.53 WHIP through 18 starts — numbers that are a far cry from the Reds ace who posted a 3.33 ERA and a career-best strikeout season just last year. He’s walked 38 batters in only 89.2 innings, a walk rate nearly double his prior form, and the command issues have been showing up in real time. In his last start against this very Dodgers lineup, Lodolo lasted just 4.2 innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits and three walks.

That’s the blueprint again tonight. Los Angeles projects as heavy favorites on team total runs, sitting around -130 on the over on 4.5, and with names like Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, and Teoscar Hernandez running through this order, Lodolo doesn’t have much margin for error. Layering in a Dodgers batter to reach base or record a hit against him only adds fuel to a lineup that’s already lit him up once this season.

The Reds bullpen isn’t exactly a fortress either, which means even if Lodolo settles in for a few innings, the Dodgers’ path to pushing this total over stays wide open deep into the game.

Skubal Strikeout Tie-In

On the other side, Tarik Skubal is doing Tarik Skubal things — a 9-7 record with a 2.84 ERA and swing-and-miss stuff that’s made him a strikeout prop mainstay all season. His strikeout line sits at 7.5, and while Cincinnati has shown some swing-happy tendencies against certain arms lately, Skubal’s ability to rack up whiffs against any lineup, lefty or righty, is what makes this a real consideration for the parlay.

Pairing a Skubal strikeout play with the Rojas stolen base anchor makes sense from a game-script standpoint too — if the Dodgers jump ahead early thanks to their bats working over Lodolo, Skubal pitches with a comfortable cushion and can attack the zone aggressively, which tends to keep the strikeout numbers climbing rather than tailing off in a stressed, defensive outing.

The Full Parlay

Here’s how we’re stacking it for tonight’s slate at Great American Ball Park:

• Miguel Rojas Stolen Base (+900)
• Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
• Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-114)

Stack those three together and you’ve got a same game parlay that leans on a heavily favored Dodgers club doing exactly what heavily favored Dodgers clubs do against a struggling starter, with a true difference-maker of a longshot riding shotgun. If you want to check the full market for this one before you fire it off, our same game parlays guide breaks down how to shop and stack legs like these the right way. This is the entertainment-forward version of tonight’s slate — low buy-in, big potential payout, and a game script that genuinely supports every leg.