Welcome to the Thursday slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on the Mariners vs. the Twins and the Mets vs. the Braves.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Blue Jays vs. Guardians tilt at 1:10 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for June 26th. Best of luck, compadres.
Opening Odds for Blue Jays vs. Guardians
Oddsmakers don't know who to favor in this matchup, as the opening line priced the Guardians as a -108 favorite at home in Cleveland. A little bit of money has shown up for the home team, so the price now sits in the -110 to -115 range in favor of the Guardians.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a low amount of scoring in this one. The number opened at 8.5 runs, with the juice on the Under in the -120 to -130 range. The total makes a lot of sense because both of these starting pitchers have above-average stuff.
Will Gausman Get Back to His Winning Ways?
I've been a big believer in Kevin Gausman for several years, but he's been scuffling a bit lately. He was lit up by the Diamondbacks and the Phillies in his last two starts. That being said, I think this is a great spot for him to "get-right" against a lackluster Guardians lineup.
Gausman has some nice career numbers against Cleveland, so that makes me think that a bounce-back performance is definitely in order. The veteran righty has an impressive K-rate of 26.8% against the Guardians through 97 batters faced. That's the kind of metrics that I can get behind.
Cleveland has struggled on offense for most of the season, and it's clear that they miss Josh Naylor in the worst kind of way. The Guardians rank just 22nd in WRC+ this season against righties, so look for Gausman to cook pretty well with his nasty splitter in this one.
Bibee is Better than People Think
Tanner Bibee's K-rate is a bit down this year, but I still like his stuff quite a bit. The young fireballer throws pretty hard and he has a sweeper that's pretty filthy. I love that his hard-hit rate ranks in the 73rd percentile, and that makes me think he can hold down the hot Jays bats.
Toronto has hit the ball a little better lately, but they're still just a middle of the road 15th in WRC+ against righties in 2025. As long as Bibee is careful with George Springer and Vladdy Jr., he should be able to hold the Jays to three runs or less.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-120)
The early weather reports from Cleveland say that the wind should be blowing in during a large portion of this game. There also could be a light drizzle of rain falling, so that could help our case for the Under in this spot. I never want to make a bet solely on weather, but it's nice to have it in our favor.
These two teams combine to score 7.34 runs per game, if you adjust for home and away splits. However, I adjusted that down to a projection of 5.87 because of how highly I rate these two starters. Give me the Under on Thursday afternoon in C-Town.
Note: I ended up buying the hook to get to 8.5, but still like it at Under 8 for -105 over at FanDuel as well.
