Best Props on the Board: Chase DeLauter, Steven Kwan, Hagen Smith Picks for ALDS Game 4

Game 4 of the ALDS is win-or-go-home for the Chicago White Sox, and elimination games have a funny way of producing some of the juiciest prop boards of the postseason. Cleveland holds a 2-1 series lead, first pitch is 8 p.m. ET at Progressive Field, and both benches are rolling out their best arms and bats with the margin for error at zero.

We went off the beaten path for this one — instead of sticking to one prop type, we hunted the entire board for the three best plays regardless of category. That means a home run prop, a total-bases-and-hits combo, and a strikeout number, all built on real trends instead of vibes.

Chase DeLauter’s Home Run Number Looks Soft

DeLauter has been one of the most productive rookies in the American League all year, finishing the regular season slashing .287/.363/.457 with 16 home runs, 67 RBI and 30 doubles across 133 games. That works out to a homer in roughly 11% of his games played — not elite power, but far from empty, and he’s shown he can run into one against quality arms.

His home run prop is sitting at +700 at Caesars, with FanDuel’s alt line pricing it closer to +570. That gap alone is worth shopping, but the appeal here is Statcast-driven: DeLauter’s opposite-field flyball rate grades out in the 90th percentile among qualified hitters, which matters a ton in a ballpark and weather window that should favor hard contact tonight. He’s locked into the 3-hole in Cleveland’s lineup, which guarantees him plenty of looks against a White Sox pitching staff that’s been forced to piece things together all series.

If the home run doesn’t land, there’s a backup angle in the same at-bat column: DeLauter’s Total Bases Over 1.5 sits at +153. Given his extra-base-hit rate and that favorable contact profile, a double or a single-plus-a-bonus knock gets this one home even without leaving the yard.

Steven Kwan’s Volume Makes the Hits Number Attractive

Kwan leads off for Cleveland and has racked up at-bats at a rate few others in this series can match. He’s averaging exactly 1.0 hit per game in 2026, and the projection models have him forecast for 1.34 total bases tonight — numbers that put real weight behind both his Hits Over 0.5 (-230) and his Total Bases Over 1.5 (+165) props.

There’s a real caveat worth naming here: Hagen Smith’s platoon splits have actually favored the White Sox defense against lefty bats, and Kwan hits from the left side. That’s not nothing against a pitcher who has been nearly unhittable for stretches this October. But Kwan’s sheer volume of plate appearances as Cleveland’s leadoff man — he’ll see four or five looks tonight regardless of how the matchup plays on paper — is what makes the hits prop specifically appealing even with Smith working against him. The total bases number carries slightly more swing risk given that split, but it’s live given Kwan’s contact-oriented approach and willingness to take the ball the other way for extra bases.

Hagen Smith’s Strikeout Stuff Hasn’t Slowed Down

Smith has been nothing short of dominant in his rookie season, finishing 3-3 with a microscopic 1.29 ERA and 41 strikeouts across just 28.0 innings in the regular season — a strikeout rate that would translate to roughly 13 per nine innings if stretched over a full workload. He’s carried that swing-and-miss stuff into October, posting a 1.42 ERA across his first three postseason appearances, with his last outing featuring a clean four-strikeout, no-walk stretch out of the bullpen.

The wrinkle: Chicago has leaned on Smith in short, high-leverage bursts this postseason rather than traditional multi-inning starts, so anyone betting the strikeout prop needs to shop a line that reflects his actual expected workload tonight rather than assuming a full start’s worth of innings. Whatever total the books set, his per-batter strikeout rate is elite enough that the number is worth attacking if it’s priced for a reliever-length outing rather than his gaudy full-season rate.

Shopping lines matters just as much as picking the right player, and that’s true across every book carrying tonight’s game — check the top sportsbook promo codes page before locking anything in, since even small differences in odds compound across a three-leg board like this one.

Lock These In

Elimination baseball tends to produce exactly the kind of runs and swing-and-miss stuff that makes player props pop, and tonight’s board at Progressive Field checks every box. Here’s the best of the board, regardless of prop type:

• Chase DeLauter HR Over 0.5 (+700 Caesars) or Total Bases Over 1.5 (+153)
• Steven Kwan Total Bases Over 1.5 (+165) or Hits Over 0.5 (-230)
• Hagen Smith Strikeouts — shop for a line that reflects tonight’s expected workload

Whether Cleveland closes it out or the White Sox force a Game 5, these three names are built into the action either way.