Best MLB Player Props on the Board Today: Josh Naylor, Gavin Williams, Quinn Mathews

Monday’s MLB slate is stacked, but three prop bets stand out above the rest of the board. We went digging through matchups, recent form, and models across the sport to find the strongest plays regardless of category — a rock-solid hits floor, the single highest-graded strikeout matchup on the entire board, and a value strikeout number that’s flying under the radar. These are the best of the best today, no matter what kind of prop you’re into.

Here’s why each of these three should be near the top of your parlay slip or straight bet ticket tonight.

Josh Naylor Over 0.5 Hits Is About as Safe as Props Get

Josh Naylor is red-hot right now, and betting him to record a single hit at -200 is one of the softest lines you’ll find tonight. The Mariners first baseman is hitting .298 (14-for-47) in September alone, already putting together four multi-hit games in just 11 contests this month. He’s coming off a 3-for-5 night with a double on Saturday and has hits in four of his last five games.

Naylor faces Reid Detmers and the Angels tonight at Angel Stadium at 9:38pm ET, and while Detmers has been excellent this season (3.32 ERA, 191 strikeouts), left-handed bats have actually had more success against him than righties — lefties are hitting .235 against Detmers compared to .209 for right-handed hitters. Naylor, a lefty swinger himself, fits right into that split. Our model projects Naylor for 1.0 hits tonight with a 71% cover rate on the over — the kind of number that makes a -200 price look like a gift.

Gavin Williams Is the Best Strikeout Matchup on the Board, Period

If you’re only betting one strikeout prop tonight, this is the one. Gavin Williams carries the single highest strikeout matchup score of any pitcher on the board today — a perfect 100 — when he takes the mound for Cleveland against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field at 6:40pm ET.

Williams has been the best strikeout arm in the American League all season, leading the AL with 228 strikeouts across 169 innings and sporting a sparkling 1.09 WHIP to go with his 13-7 record and 3.78 ERA. The White Sox lineup he’s facing tonight has fanned 1,233 times as a team this year, one of the higher marks in the league, and Williams has racked up double-digit strikeout efforts multiple times down the stretch. Our model projects him for roughly 7.7 strikeouts tonight, and given both his current form and the swing-and-miss tendencies of Chicago’s lineup, the over on his strikeout total lines up as the single strongest prop play on the entire slate.

Quinn Mathews Offers Real Value Against the Giants

Quinn Mathews doesn’t have the name recognition of the other two names on this list, but that’s exactly why his strikeout number is worth a second look. The Cardinals lefty gets the ball against the San Francisco Giants tonight at Busch Stadium at 7:45pm ET, with his strikeout line set at 4.5 (-138).

Mathews has already seen this Giants lineup once this month, striking out four over six strong innings in a quality start back on September 8. He’s sitting on a 28:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio through six starts this season and has topped four strikeouts in four of his last five outings, including a seven-strikeout effort against Pittsburgh in late August. Our model projects him for 5.3 strikeouts tonight, comfortably clearing the 4.5 line, and with a second look at a familiar Giants lineup, there’s a real case Mathews outperforms his own recent number.

Lock These In

Three different prop types, three different stories, but each one graded as one of the strongest plays on the board tonight. Whether you build these into a same game parlay or bet them straight, this is where the value is hiding on Monday’s slate.

• Josh Naylor OVER 0.5 Hits (-200)
• Gavin Williams OVER Strikeouts (model: ~7.7 K, highest matchup score on the board)
• Quinn Mathews OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Check your player prop search tool for the latest lines before kickoff, since numbers can shift throughout the day. If you’re pairing any of these with a same game parlay, our same game parlays guide breaks down how to structure it for maximum value.