Best Bet for BetMGM $50,000 Grand Slam Jackpot on Friday, July 5: Let's Ride Ramos!

Welcome to Jackpot Friday! BetMGM offers an exciting promotion every Friday where you bet one player (min $10) to hit a home run and if they hit a grand slam, you’ll win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets.

Grand Slams are nearly impossible to predict, so we’ll be looking at the same factors of a player to just hit a home run. Generally, with home runs I’m looking at a few factors: Weather conditions, opposing pitcher, and rolling barrel rate/ wRC+ for the batter.

Unlike Fanduel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, we’re less focused on games that will produce a lot of home runs and more focused on an individual matchup. We’ll be tracking our progress on this promo on EWB and hopefully cash in on our share of $50K this season!

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Best Bet for Friday, July 5th: Heliot Ramos (+575)

The San Francisco Giants's road trip continues onto Cleveland after taking two of three down in Atlanta. Once regarded as one of the Giants’ top prospects, Heliot Ramos has been a spark plug for the team offensively with twelve home runs on the season after getting called up in early May.

The Guardians are rolling out Tanner Bibee tonight, who’s quietly been one of the best pitchers in the American League in 2024. That being said, he isn’t immune to giving up the home run, allowing two in his last start against the Kansas City Royals.

Bibee has been elite this year and before his previous start against the Royals was racking up strikeouts bringing his season average up to a 28% K-rate. Ramos is no stranger to the strikeout, with a high k-rate of his own.

Despite this, I think the number we’re getting on Ramos is way too high, given his run of late. We’re seeing some market divergence on this one as well with numbers as low as +450 out there. I’m happy to take +575 at MGM where the tough matchup tax that the books are tacking on seems too high for Ramos.

Guardians Having Bullpen Issues

We’ve also seen the Guardians bullpen struggle of late as their 14 day rolling averages have started to trend in the wrong direction. They’ve given up 1.81 HR/9 in the last two weeks, good for third worst in the league during this stretch.

The Guardians bullpen has been spectacular in 2024, so perhaps they were due for some regression as we head into the all-star break. With Heliot Ramos slotted in the 2 spot on the road team, we should see him get a couple chances against the bullpen which is another reason why I think this is an inflated price.

We’ll look for some late inning heroics from Ramos and hopefully the Giants can get the bases juiced for our man!