Best Bet for BetMGM $50,000 Grand Slam Jackpot on Friday, July 19: Lowe Should Power the Rays!

Welcome to Jackpot Friday! BetMGM offers an exciting promotion every Friday where you bet one player (min $10) to hit a home run and if they hit a grand slam, you’ll win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets. Grand Slams are nearly impossible to predict, so we’ll be looking at the same factors of a player to just hit a home run.

Generally, with home runs I’m looking at a few factors: Weather conditions, opposing pitcher, and rolling barrel rate/ wRC+ for the batter.

Unlike Fanduel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, we’re less focused on games that will produce a lot of home runs and more focused on an individual matchup. We’ll be tracking our progress on this promo on EWB and hopefully cash in on our share of $50K this season!

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Best Bet for Friday, July 19th: Brandon Lowe (+425)

We are back from the All-Star Break and ready to tackle a full MLB slate here for Jackpot Friday. I’m taking a look at the Rays/Yankees matchup where it will be a warm night in the Bronx with Gerrit Cole on the mound for the Yankees.

Cole was shut down in spring training with an elbow injury and made his debut a few weeks before the All-Star break. He’s been less than sharp in his return despite a solid outing his last time out. When healthy, we know that Cole is one of the league’s best, which I believe is helping inflate the homerun prices due to the uncertainty around his status.

Cole tends to be a creature of habit so pitching after the break on extra rest plus the fact that he hasn’t settled in in the first place, could mean that there is stiff more rust to be shaken off for the Yankees ace.

Lowe is Finally Healthy

I like Brandon Lowe to get it done for the Rays tonight, who seems to be one of their only veteran hitters not on the trade market currently. Lowe missed some time in April/May with an oblique injury but has picked up where he left off in 2023 with impressive barrel rates and contact metrics.

Lowe is a patient hitter (10.3% BB-rate) but does have a ton of swing and miss in his game (31.6& whiff rate/25% K-Rate), however, if Cole doesn’t have his best stuff tonight, he would be the most likely in the Rays lineup to take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium tonight.

BetMGM has this priced at +425 which is higher than most other books in the market in the mid 300’s. I like the additional value here on Lowe against a pitcher that I’m not convinced is at his peak form. We’ll be rooting for Tampa Bay to load them up for Lowe who usually finds himself in the 2-spot for the Rays against right-handed pitching.