Best Bet for BetMGM $50,000 Grand Slam Jackpot on Friday, July 12: Will Horwitz Go Deep Against Arizona?

Welcome to Jackpot Friday! BetMGM offers an exciting promotion every Friday where you bet one player (min $10) to hit a home run and if they hit a grand slam, you’ll win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets. Grand Slams are nearly impossible to predict, so we’ll be looking at the same factors of a player to just hit a home run.

Generally, with home runs I’m looking at a few factors: Weather conditions, opposing pitcher, and rolling barrel rate/ wRC+ for the batter. Unlike Fanduel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, we’re less focused on games that will produce a lot of home runs and more focused on an individual matchup.

We’ll be tracking our progress on this promo on EWB and hopefully cash in on our share of $50K this season!

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Best Bet for Friday, July 5th: Spencer Horwitz (+700)

Horowitz has been a spark plug for the struggling Blue Jays since his call up in early June. Although in a small sample size (<100 ABs), Horowitz has put up some impressive numbers.

He’s shown elite vision at the plate, with a 13% walk rate and just a 14% K-Rate, paired with a 15.6% whiff rate. Horowitz has crushed right handed pitching so far this year with a 176 wRC+ and .200 .ISO.

The Blue Jays offense goes up against Ryne Nelson tonight in Arizona, a ballpark that tends to play on the hitter friendly side. Nelson has struggled to prove to be any more than an innings eater in his short major league career. While he does have good command (5.3% BB-rate) he struggles to miss bats (18.2% whiff rate) and doesn’t put away hitters (15.3% K-rate).

Nelson Could Get Rocked!

His 5.08 ERA is supported by a poor 4.82 xERA and continues to post a hard-hit rate above 40% and a barrel rate approaching double digits. Nelson mostly features a fastball/cutter combo but has failed to create a solid third pitch to support his below average stuff.

+700 is a huge number for a player that is quietly becoming a power source for the Blue Jays, despite still being relatively unknown. I like getting big numbers on road players at the top of the lineup as they are the most likely to see some additional at bats.

After homering yesterday, I think Horowitz will continue the hot streak into Arizona against a layup matchup in Ryne Nelson. Let’s see if the Blue Jays can load them up for Horowitz and give us a piece of the jackpot!