With a 2-1 result on Wednesday that netted us 1.3 units, our prop record on the young MLB season has moved above .500 at 11-10. We intend to continue this strong run, which currently sits at 8-3 over our last 11 and was maintained Wednesday by Carlos Santana going 0-for-4 against the Yankees and Freddie Freeman roping two singles in a road matchup with the Giants to cash each of their plays.
After taking a breather from the lightly populated Thursday schedule, we’re back for Friday’s slate and have three more best bets in the player prop department that we dig into just ahead.
Corey Seager OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+108 @ Caesars)
It hasn’t been the best start to a season for the reigning World Series MVP. After posting a .623 SLG last season, Seager’s OPS through 41 games is .670, and he’s barely above a replacement-level player in terms of WAR (0.5).
Things may be turning around for him, though. Seager has hit safely in 10 of his last 12 appearances, a span in which he’s slashing .283/.359/.500 with three home runs, six runs scored, and eight RBI.
The Rangers are facing Angels’ lefty Tyler Anderson Friday, who is 3-4 with a 2.92 ERA in eight starts this year. Seager has struggled facing left-handed pitching this season (.552 OPS) but has owned Anderson in 26 career plate appearances (1.070 OPS).
With his recent form trending upward and a comfortable matchup against Anderson today, we project Seager to cash another plus-money play for us heading into the weekend.
Freddy Peralta UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150 @ DraftKings)
Peralta had failed to go six innings in three straight outings before doing so against the Cardinals last weekend. He struck out eight while issuing a walk and allowing three earned runs in a no-decision.
His strikeout rate this season (11.7 K/9) is Peralta’s best since 2021 when he was named to his one All-Star team, although his walk rate has also ticked up compared with the past two campaigns. The Astros own the best strikeout rate in the league by a wide margin, being set down on strikes in just 17.2% of their plate appearances.
The gap between Houston and the second-best team at avoiding strikeouts, the Kansas City Royals, is the same as between KC and Miami, who rank tenth. The ‘Stros are fifth in average exit velocity and could force Peralta into another shorter outing if they rack up long ABs and hard-hit balls. We’ll take Peralta’s under for those reasons.
Shohei Ohtani OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105 @ DraftKings)
The two-time MVP has been as advertised for a Dodger franchise that inked him to a $700M deal this offseason. Ohtani leads Major League Baseball in hits, batting average, total bases, SLG, and OPS while enjoying a staggering 94.9 mph exit velocity on balls in play.
Today, Ohtani and company welcome the Cincinnati Reds to town and square off against starting pitcher Frankie Montas, whom Ohtani has terrorized in 30 career meetings. The Dodgers star has four big flies, 11 RBI, and a whopping 1.450 OPS against the veteran righty, and Montas has been inconsistent across seven starts this year.
The 31-year-old has a 1.367 WHIP and 4.65 FIP overall, allowing left-handed batters to post a .798 OPS in 74 plate appearances. We like Ohtani to follow suit in his first meeting with Montas since 2022.
