3 MLB Best Props to Back for ALCS Game 4 on October 16

Baseball fans, rejoice and then immediately check the radar. The entire MLB slate on Friday is one game: Game 4 of the ALCS, with the Rays visiting the Guardians at Progressive Field and Cleveland holding a 2-1 series lead. First pitch is set for 8:00 PM ET on TBS and truTV, and with only one game on the board, the prop menu is surprisingly rich.

We went through the market and pulled the three props that look best to us regardless of category: one big bat, one starting pitcher workload play, and one lottery-ticket slugger who is priced like a long shot but swings like a menace. One housekeeping note before we dig in: rain is in the forecast in Cleveland, and a postponement could change who starts for Tampa Bay, so confirm the starter is still Nick Martinez before you put a dollar down. Lines move, so check your book for the final number.

Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+143 at DraftKings)

When the Guardians need a spark, Jose Ramirez is usually the one holding the match. He has gone for two or more total bases in five of his last six games, and in this postseason he is hitting .333 with two home runs, eight RBI and two steals. That is not a hot streak so much as a man playing October like it owes him money.

The market agrees he is going to put the ball in play. His hits prop at 0.5 is sitting around -194, which tells you books expect contact. The total bases line asks for a little more, a double, a homer or two singles, but the plus-money price is where the value lives. Ramirez averaged 2.1 total bases across his last ten games, comfortably above the 1.5 line, and at +143 you are getting paid like a coin flip for something that has been happening far more often than that.

The matchup helps, too. Cleveland has not named a starter and is expected to lean on its bullpen, which keeps the game loose and the lineup turning over, and more plate appearances for the best bat in the order is never a bad thing. If you like to compare numbers across apps before you bet, our player prop search is a handy place to start.

Nick Martinez Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (-140 at BetMGM)

Here is the one that keeps us up at night in a good way. We are not touching Martinez’s strikeouts. We are betting that he simply stays on the mound long enough to get through the fourth inning and into the fifth, which is what 12 outs gets you.

Martinez was one of the steadiest arms in the Rays’ rotation this year, going 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP across 31 starts and 180 innings. His walk rate is tiny, about 1.3 per nine, and a pitcher who does not hand out free passes does not burn through his pitch count early. He also has history with this exact lineup: he held Cleveland scoreless for 13 innings across two starts this season and pitched into the sixth inning in both of them.

The one concern is his last start. Martinez went 3 2/3 innings against the Yankees in the ALDS, allowing two runs in a no-decision, so you can argue the Rays will have a quick hook in a high-leverage game. Still, he spent the first three games of this series available out of the bullpen, so he comes in rested, and Tampa Bay needs length from him in a series that could go five games. At -140 you are paying a premium, which is why we want to be sure about the starter. If the game gets pushed to Saturday and the Rays change plans, this bet is off the table.

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+540)

Every card needs one swing for the fences, and Caminero is the right man for the job. He hit 42 home runs this season, and the books still price him at roughly +540 on most boards, which works out to a home run in about 22 percent of his games when you look at his season-long rate. That is close to one in every four or five contests for a player who hits the ball as hard as anyone in the American League.

We did think about his RBI prop, which is posted near +195 in some places, but we could not confirm that number across enough books to feel good recommending it, so we are sticking with the home run. One swing can erase a quiet stretch, and with Cleveland expected to mix and match arms, Caminero could see a few different pitchers over the course of the night.

This is a small-stake play. Treat it like a lottery ticket with a real pulse, not a rent payment. If you are new to how this kind of pricing works, our guide to betting odds explains why +540 means what it means.

Lock These In Before the Rain Does Something Weird

Three props, one game and a lot of weather uncertainty. Make sure the starting pitchers are confirmed, shop around for the best price, and keep your stakes sensible, especially on the long shot. Here is the card:

• Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 total bases (+143 at DraftKings)
• Nick Martinez OVER 11.5 outs recorded (-140 at BetMGM)
• Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+540, check your book)

Ramirez is the steady one, Martinez is the grinder, and Caminero is the fireworks. If the rain holds off and Cleveland’s bullpen game goes sideways, this could be a very fun Friday night.