3 MLB Best-of-Board Props to Back on October 18: ALCS Game 5

One game. One chance to grab a 3-2 series lead. The only thing on the MLB board Sunday is ALCS Game 5 at Progressive Field, where the Rays and Guardians are tied 2-2 and first pitch is set for 5:08 PM ET. When the whole sport shrinks to a single game, the player prop menu gets a lot more interesting, and we went digging for the weird, the speedy, and the sneaky.

The game itself has Tampa Bay as a slight road favorite around -128 to -132, Cleveland at roughly +106 to +112, and a total of 6.5 with the over at -114. Our three plays below come off the Dimers model board, and each one has a real reason to exist. Prices move, so check your book before you fire.

Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+283 at DraftKings)

Let’s start with the fun one. Simpson led the American League with 46 steals this season while hitting .306, and the man runs like the baseball is on fire. At nearly +300, you are getting paid like a long shot for a guy whose entire job description includes taking the next base.

The postseason has been quieter, with just one steal so far and a .167 average over 18 at-bats, but he has still driven in four runs. Parker Messick is a lefty who has struggled with command in October, walking eight and allowing 20 baserunners across 11 2/3 innings in three playoff outings. Free passes are exactly how a burner gets his chance, and the model likes the number to the tune of a 9.4 percent edge.

The honest caveat is that Simpson also led the majors with 14 times caught stealing, so this is a high-variance ticket by nature. That is the point of a +283 shot, though. If you want a primer on how to think about longer prices, our how betting odds work guide breaks down what those plus-money numbers really mean.

Petey Halpin To Record a Hit (+100 at FanDuel)

Here is the pick that makes you feel smart at the bar. Cleveland’s center fielder hit just .225 in the regular season with a .594 OPS, which is exactly why this line is sitting at even money. But October Petey is a different animal, hitting .308 with a 1.092 OPS this postseason, and he crushed a 385-foot, two-run homer off Griffin Jax in Game 3 that flipped a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 Cleveland lead.

Halpin has been starting in center field and hitting near the bottom of the order, which means he sees pitches without the pressure of being the guy opponents pitch around. A plus-money price on a hitter who has been squaring the ball up lately is a nice little gift, and the model puts the true chance at 52.1 percent. Even money on a better-than-coin-flip outcome is the kind of math we sign up for. You can browse more lines of this type with the player prop search tool.

Drew Rasmussen Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-105 at DraftKings)

Yes, we are betting against the ace. Rasmussen has been terrific this postseason, going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts across 14 innings. That is exactly why the market is offering this prop at a near pick-em price rather than a heavy number on the over.

Start with the matchup. Cleveland already got to him in Game 1, when Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey each took him deep and he gave up two runs over six innings. Rasmussen himself admitted the Guardians lineup is exhausting, saying their bat-to-ball ability is elite and that every hitter can run once they reach base. He is 1-1 with a 2.73 ERA in eight career outings against Cleveland, and he allowed three runs, two earned, in five innings in an April 29 loss to Cleveland.

Two earned runs is a low bar for a lineup that scraps its way around the bases, and the model likes the over at 54.9 percent. If you prefer to build around a single-game slate, our same game parlays page walks through how to stack legs like these.

Lock These In

With one game on the board, you can watch every pitch without a single scoreboard distraction. Here are the three plays from the Dimers model for Sunday’s ALCS Game 5, ranging from a coin flip to a lottery ticket on wheels.

• Chandler Simpson OVER 0.5 stolen bases (+283 at DraftKings)
• Petey Halpin to record a hit (+100 at FanDuel)
• Drew Rasmussen OVER 1.5 earned runs (-105 at DraftKings)

Rasmussen versus Messick promises plenty of tension, and it should be a blast to watch. Grab your snacks, shop around for the best number, and enjoy the only game in town. Our MLB betting guide is a handy companion for the rest of the postseason.