3 Best-of-the-Board MLB Props to Back on July 31: Martinez Ks, Rosario HRR, Contreras Fade

The MLB slate on July 31 is loaded, and instead of picking one lane, we went shopping across the entire board. Strikeouts, hits, contrarian unders, whatever gave us the best number — that’s the only filter that mattered today. Three picks, three different bet types, one goal: cash tickets by the end of the night.

No agenda here beyond finding value. A red-hot Rays ace, a Yankees table-setter feasting on lefties, and a future Hall of Famer we’re fading in his own building. Let’s get into it.

Nick Martinez Is Quietly Having a Cy Young-Caliber Season

Start with the Rays’ Nick Martinez, who takes the mound tonight against the White Sox sitting on a 10-2 record and a sparkling 2.45 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP. That’s ace-level production from a guy who doesn’t always get the national attention. He’s racked up 67 strikeouts on the year and is averaging 3.63 per start with real swing-and-miss stuff mixed into his outings.

Tampa Bay is a -154 favorite tonight against a White Sox lineup that ranks among the more strikeout-prone units in the league, and Chicago is sending out Erick Fedde (5-6, 4.25 ERA) as a counter — not exactly a shutdown arm that keeps this game low-scoring and short. The current strikeout market has Martinez at Over 4.5 strikeouts around +125, with an Over 16.5 outs recorded number also on the board at -182, both signals that oddsmakers expect him to work deep into this one.

Martinez has been death on contact-oriented lineups all year, and the White Sox aren’t going to change that trend at Tropicana Field. This is the strikeout side we want on the board tonight.

Amed Rosario Feasts on Lefties, and the Cubs Are Sending One Out

Over in Chicago, Amed Rosario and the Yankees get the Cubs in a 2:20 pm ET tilt, and Rosario’s plate splits make him one of the sneakier value plays on the whole slate. He’s hitting for real power this year — nine home runs and 27 RBI through 52 games — and has been at his best against left-handed pitching, which lines up perfectly with today’s probable starter.

The number we like is Rosario Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at +120. He’s gone over that combined total in two of his last three meetings against southpaws, and with New York’s lineup rolling behind him, the run-scoring opportunities should be there even if the hit doesn’t come easily. At plus money for a middle-of-the-order bat who’s shown he handles this look well, this is the kind of price value that gets overlooked when everyone’s chasing the big power names.

Rosario isn’t a guarantee — no prop ever is — but the matchup context makes +120 feel generous for what should be a productive afternoon at the plate.

Fading Willson Contreras in His Own Building

Here’s the contrarian one. Willson Contreras has been excellent for Boston this season — a .285 average with 19 home runs and 56 RBI is star-level production — but tonight’s matchup against the Dodgers sets up as a spot to fade the volume, not the talent.

The current market on Contreras has his hits number pricing out with the under carrying appealing plus-money value in the range of +362, while the over on the smaller line sits down around -450 territory depending on the book. That gap tells you the market expects Contreras to get his hit more often than not — which is exactly why the under, when it’s priced generously, becomes the interesting side. The Dodgers are trotting out a pitching staff that has handled contact hitters well of late, and even elite bats go 0-fer plenty in single-game samples against a tough arm.

This is a swing-for-value spot rather than a book-it lock, but at those contrarian odds, the risk-reward on Under 0.5 Hits is too good to pass up.

Lock These In

Three completely different bet types, three completely different reasons to like them. That’s the beauty of shopping the entire board instead of forcing an angle. Here’s tonight’s card:

• Nick Martinez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)
• Amed Rosario Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+120)
• Willson Contreras Under 0.5 Hits (+362, check your book for current pricing)

Mix a workhorse strikeout arm, a lefty-mashing table-setter, and a contrarian fade on a superstar, and you’ve got a props card built for value hunters. Check your book before locking anything in, since lines move fast — but the numbers here are worth a look at any major sportsbook sportsbook promo code you’re using tonight.