3 Best MLB Props to Back Today: Hits, Home Runs, and Strikeouts Worth Betting

Sunday’s MLB slate is stacked, and instead of picking a lane we went hunting across the entire board for the three best plays we could find, no matter the bet type. That means a stolen-base machine chasing a hit, a bona fide slugger hunting his next homer, and an ace lefty trying to punch out enough Blue Jays to cash a strikeout ticket. Different sports, same board, three shots we like.

We’re not married to any one prop type today. We just want the best numbers, and these three gave us the most confidence when we ran through the matchups, recent form, and what the books are actually pricing.

Elly De La Cruz Gets on Base Against Washington

Elly De La Cruz (#44, Reds SS) is priced at a whopping -288 to go OVER 0.5 hits against the Nationals today, and while that number looks scary at first glance, it’s basically the market pricing in exactly how good he’s been. De La Cruz is hitting .277 with a .361 OBP and .509 slugging percentage this season, with 20 home runs, 54 RBIs, and 66 runs scored across 96 games. He’s also been an absolute menace on the bases, swiping 21 bags on 27 attempts.

Yes, he went 0-for-4 in his last game against Washington, but zoom out and the trend is obvious — he’s collected a hit in nine of his last eleven outings, including four straight multi-hit-capable performances against the A’s and Pirates before that. The Nationals’ pitching staff has been giving up a lot of contact all year (.250 team AVG against), and De La Cruz’s 26.7% strikeout rate, while notable, comes with an 11% walk rate that shows real plate discipline for a player who also runs like his hair’s on fire.

Beyond the hit prop, keep an eye on the stolen base market too — with a leadoff-caliber OBP and a green light against a Nationals catching corps that isn’t known for shutting down the running game, De La Cruz brings extra value even if you’re not laying the juice on hits alone.

Aaron Judge Hunting Another Home Run vs. Atlanta

Aaron Judge (#99, Yankees RF) gets a lean toward the home run market at plus-money odds in the +175 range as the Yankees host the Braves today, and this is about as straightforward as a power lean gets. Judge has been the most feared bat in the American League for years, and Atlanta’s pitching staff enters this series banged up and inconsistent, which is exactly the kind of matchup where a true middle-of-the-order slugger cashes.

The Yankees as a team are leaning on their power this season to cover for some rough patches elsewhere in the lineup, and Judge is still the straw that stirs that drink. Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field has fueled Judge’s home run totals for years, and a Braves staff that’s had trouble stranding runners and avoiding the long ball all year is walking into a bad spot at a hitter-friendly park.

This isn’t a “lock” the way a heavily-juiced hits prop is — home run props are inherently more volatile — but at plus-175, the payout more than compensates for the swing-and-miss risk, especially with Judge as locked into an everyday middle-of-the-order role as anyone in baseball.

Jesús Luzardo Going Under the Strikeout Total vs. Toronto

Jesús Luzardo (#44, Phillies LHP) is priced at -120 on DraftKings to go UNDER 6.5 strikeouts against the Blue Jays, and this is the pick in this trio that requires the most nuance. Luzardo has been excellent this season — a 3.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 164 strikeouts in 136.2 innings, good for a strong 10.8 K/9 and a season-long strikeout rate right around 29.0%. On pure talent, betting against his strikeouts feels backwards.

But dig into his last several outings and a pattern shows up: he went under his strikeout total in three of his last five starts, including a 7-K performance in 8 shutout innings against Washington that still cleared the line by the skin of his teeth, and a 5-K clunker against Miami. Toronto’s lineup, while not punchless, has trimmed its strikeout rate as a team and puts the ball in play at an above-average clip compared to some of the free-swinging lineups Luzardo has faced recently.

The projection models have him right around 6.28 strikeouts for this exact matchup — essentially a coin flip on the number itself, but the market’s -120 price on the under suggests the room leans that way once you factor in the Blue Jays’ contact-oriented approach. When a pitcher this good is projected to land basically dead-on a line, we’re comfortable taking the number that recent form and matchup context both point toward.

Today’s Edge

Three completely different bet types, three different sports storylines, one shared thread — we like the numbers on all three. If you’re building a card for Sunday, these are the plays worth attaching your bankroll to, whether you take them straight or stack them into a same game parlay.

• Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 hits (-288)
• Aaron Judge home run lean (+175)
• Jesús Luzardo UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (-120)

Check current lines at your sportsbook before locking anything in, since odds can shift closer to first pitch. But as of right now, this is the best of the board.