Sunday’s MLB slate is winding down the regular season, but that doesn’t mean the value dries up. We combed through the board looking for the three best plays regardless of prop type, and we landed on a strikeout monster, a Brewers table-setter quietly having a career year, and an Athletics infielder who’s been an absolute menace at the plate for two weeks straight.
These aren’t three props tied together by theme — they’re just the three sharpest numbers we could find today. Here’s the case for each.
Jacob Misiorowski Is Nearly Unbeatable on the Strikeout Line
Let’s start with the headliner. Jacob Misiorowski takes the mound for Milwaukee against St. Louis on Sunday sporting a 1.86 ERA and a 15-5 record, numbers that make him one of the most dominant arms in baseball this season. His strikeout rate backs it up completely — a 13.13 K/9 that ranks among the best in the National League.
What makes the Over 7.0 strikeouts number (sitting around -110 at most books, so it’s worth a quick odds shopping pass across your usual books) so attractive is the sheer consistency. Misiorowski has cleared 3.5 strikeouts in every single one of his 29 starts this season, and over his last 10 outings he’s averaging 7.4 punchouts per game. Against this specific Cardinals lineup, he’s been even better — five career meetings with St. Louis have produced an average of 7 strikeouts, with the over hitting in 80% of those starts.
Milwaukee is also a heavy home favorite in this one at -255 on the moneyline, which tells you the market expects exactly the kind of dominant, deep start that piles up strikeout totals. When a pitcher this good gets a get-right matchup at home against a team he’s already carved up, the number on the board starts to look soft.
Brice Turang’s Total Bases Are Undervalued
Turang doesn’t get talked about as much as some of the bigger names in Milwaukee’s lineup, but the second baseman is putting together a genuine breakout season — a .268 average, 21 home runs, 99 RBI, and an .819 OPS across 578 at-bats. He’s also racked up 261 total bases this year, good for 20th in the National League among all hitters.
The Total Bases Over 1.5 prop at +171 is where the value lives. FTA models project Turang for 2.2 total bases in this matchup, well clear of the 1.5 threshold, and the plus-money odds mean the payout more than compensates for the times he comes up just short. With his power numbers up across the board this season and a favorable matchup at home against St. Louis, this is a line that doesn’t fully reflect how often Turang has been doing damage on contact.
Zack Gelof Is Red Hot at the Perfect Time
If you want the single hottest bat on the board today, it’s Zack Gelof. The Athletics third baseman has been on an absolute tear, going 11-for-26 (.423) with four home runs and eight RBI over his last seven games. Zoom out to the full month of September and it’s even more absurd — a .271 average with a .612 slugging percentage and eight homers in the month alone.
The Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 1.5 prop at +100 looks like one of the best-priced plays on the entire board given that recent form, and if you want to see how that plus-money number stacks up as a same game parlay piece with the other legs today, it’s worth the look. FTA projects Gelof for 2.26 combined hits, runs, and RBIs in this matchup against Houston, which works out to roughly a 17% edge over the implied probability at even money. When a hitter is running this hot heading into the final week of the season, betting against him clearing 1.5 combined stats at plus odds is a tough ask for the sportsbook.
Today’s Edge
Three different prop types, three different teams, one common thread: each number on the board looks softer than the recent performance backing it up. If you’re deciding where to put your money on Sunday, these are the three we’d lean on hardest.
- Jacob Misiorowski OVER 7.0 Strikeouts (around -110)
- Brice Turang OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+171)
- Zack Gelof OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100)
Check your book for the latest numbers before locking anything in, but if the board looks anything like it does right now, all three are worth a play.
The smartest 5 minutes in betting
Get the week's best offers, line moves, and data-driven picks — straight to your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Join 240,000+ subscribers. 21+ only.
