Monday night’s MLB slate is stacked with prop angles, but three stand out above the noise. We’ve got a superstar outfielder chasing lightning against a Twins arm he’s already touched for a longball this month, the Cubs’ breakout burner riding a career year, and a Tigers ace-in-the-making who’s part of DraftKings’ own strikeout parlay tonight. Mix a home run shot, a monster power bet, and a strikeout total, and you’ve got the best of the board for Monday, August 17.
These aren’t hunches. Every pick below is backed by real numbers, real matchups, and lines you can find on the board right now. Here’s how we’re attacking tonight’s slate.
Ronald Acuña Jr. to Go Deep Against Bailey Ober
Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL OF, #13) is priced at +373 to homer tonight against Twins right-hander Bailey Ober at Target Field, which works out to a 21.1% implied probability per oddsshopper market pricing — one of the more appealing longshot HR prices on the board Monday. Acuña’s been heating up at the plate lately and already went deep this past Saturday against Arizona, going 2-for-4 with a solo shot.
On the season, Acuña is hitting .244/.352/.441 with 13 home runs, and while the average isn’t eye-popping, the .441 slugging mark and steady walk rate (40 in 72 games) show a hitter who’s still doing real damage when he connects. Ober brings a bloated 4.64 ERA into the matchup and has allowed 97 hits and 54 runs across 99 innings this season — the kind of profile that gives sluggers like Acuña a real look at mistakes over the plate.
At Target Field, where the ball can carry depending on conditions, and against a pitcher who’s had trouble missing bats and limiting hard contact, +373 looks like fair value for a hitter with 13 bombs already banked in a down season by his standards.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Goes Deep Again
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC OF, #7) leads the Cubs with 28 home runs this season, and he gets a juicy spot Monday night at Wrigley Field against White Sox right-hander Luis Castillo, who’s scuffling to a 4-9 record and 4.96 ERA in 2026. Crow-Armstrong has been one of the best all-around players in baseball this year, slashing .276 with a .907 OPS, 75 RBIs, and 30 stolen bases — a legitimate 30-30 threat with power to all fields.
Castillo’s ERA sits nearly a full run and a half worse than his career norms, and the White Sox as a whole have been vulnerable on the road, arriving in Chicago on a stretch where their pitching staff has bled runs. Crow-Armstrong has quietly become must-watch appointment viewing every time he steps in the box, and DraftKings has taken notice — he’s a featured leg in DK’s “As The Crow Flies” home run parlay Monday night alongside fellow Cub Kyle Schwarber.
When the same set of storylines — a locked-in power hitter, a struggling starter, and a favorable home ballpark — line up this cleanly, it’s worth paying attention. Crow-Armstrong going deep again feels like one of the more logical power bets on the entire board tonight.
Framber Valdez Strikeouts Over 4.5
Framber Valdez (DET SP, #59) takes the mound tonight against the Pirates at PNC Park (7:05 p.m. ET) with his strikeout total set at Over 4.5 at -152 on DraftKings. Valdez sports a 7-8 record and 4.26 ERA this season, but the strikeout stuff has remained steady — he’s averaging 4.42 strikeouts per game on the year, and he’s carried a 106-strikeout total across 24 starts (133 innings) in 2026.
Facing him is Pirates counterpart Carmen Mlodzinski, but the more relevant matchup here is Valdez against a Pittsburgh lineup that hasn’t been especially disciplined against sinkerball-heavy left-handers this season. Valdez’s bread and butter has always been generating soft contact and chases down in the zone, and racking up a handful of strikeouts along the way has become part of the package as his stuff has ticked up.
This one’s also part of the bigger strikeout story tonight — Valdez is one of four legs in DraftKings’ “Mound Mastery” strikeout parlay, which needs him to clear 6-plus punchouts to help cash. Even without needing the parlay to hit, clearing 4.5 on its own at -152 is a very playable number given his season-long averages and a Pirates order that isn’t going to scare anyone with its plate discipline.
Lock These In
Monday’s board gives you a home run longshot with real thump behind it, a proven power bat in a soft matchup, and a strikeout floor that should clear with room to spare. Here’s the full slate:
- Ronald Acuña Jr. to hit a home run (+373)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run (check your book)
- Framber Valdez OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-152)
Three different bet types, three different flavors of value — that’s exactly what a good best-of-the-board slate should look like. Track the live odds and game MLB odds before first pitch to lock in the best numbers across your books.
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