3 Best MLB Prop Bets to Back Today: Kirby Under, Freeman Hits Over, and Jobe’s Strikeout Edge

Sunday’s slate is loaded with prime-time pitching matchups and a few sneaky hitter spots, and after digging through the board, three plays stood out as the kind you build a slip around. This isn’t three of the same flavor — it’s a strikeout number, a hits number, and an unders play on a shaky arm, stitched together because each one has real, verifiable numbers behind it.

Here’s the best of the board for Sunday, one pick from three completely different corners of the game.

George Kirby’s Command Has Wobbled — Bet the Under on Outs

George Kirby (SEA, RHP, No. 68) takes the mound against Boston with an outs-recorded line hovering around 17.5, and the recent trend says fade the over. Kirby is sitting at 9-10 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the season, and while his full-season average of just under 5.2 innings a start clears that number on paper, his last five outings tell a different story: 5.1 innings per start, and that number is dragged up by one strong outing. Strip out the 7.2-inning gem against Philadelphia on August 25 and you’re left with starts of 3.1, 4.2, 5.0 and 7.0 innings in his other four — two of which didn’t even get him to five full frames.

The matchup doesn’t help his cause. Boston’s lineup ranks near the top of the league in on-base percentage (.323) and has produced 1,164 team strikeouts against but also 608 runs scored, a middle-of-the-pack offense that makes contact and works counts. Red Sox starters have shown they can grind a game deep into the middle innings, and if Kirby runs into traffic early the way he did twice in his last five trips out, the hook could come before he ever sniffs 18 outs.

Cody Freeman Is Heating Up at the Plate — Back the Over on Hits

Cody Freeman (TEX) has quietly turned into one of the more interesting bats in the Rangers’ lineup down the stretch, and Sunday’s matchup against Athletics right-hander Gage Jump sets up nicely for another hit. Freeman is hitting .277 in his 2026 look with Texas, up from .228 a year ago, and he’s been on a real roll lately — 7-for-26 (.269) over his last nine starts with a triple, a homer and five runs scored while bouncing between second and third base.

The bigger signal here is the split: Freeman has posted a .900 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, and while Jump throws right-handed, the Athletics’ pitching staff as a whole has been an easy target all year. Oakland’s rotation carries a bloated 5.53 team ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, and Jump himself has been rough lately — a 6.38 ERA over his last five starts with hits and extra-base contact piling up. When a hitter who’s actively trending up faces a staff that can’t miss bats or keep the ball in the ballpark, the hits prop is where the value lives.

Jackson Jobe’s Strikeout Stuff Travels Against a Cold Twins Lineup

Jackson Jobe (DET, RHP, No. 21) gets the ball against Minnesota’s Taj Bradley in a spot that favors the swing-and-miss. Jobe is still building back innings and consistency in his first full MLB look — 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his limited starts — but the swing-and-miss ability has shown up even in short bursts, and the market has priced his strikeout number aggressively low given how the Twins’ offense is trending.

Minnesota has been ice cold, dropping seven of its last 10 games while hitting just .246 as a team over that stretch, exactly the kind of offense that chases pitches and racks up strikeouts against a pitcher who can locate. Bradley, on the other side, has been the more established arm this season at 9-6 with a 3.97 ERA, so this game likely leans on both starters missing bats rather than turning into a track meet — a good environment for Jobe’s punch-out prop to clear.

Lock These In

Three different bet types, three different reads on the board, but each one is backed by real, recent numbers rather than a hunch. Check your book for the latest lines before locking anything in, since numbers can move closer to first pitch — a quick odds shopping pass across a couple of sportsbooks can squeeze extra value out of all three of these.

• George Kirby UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded vs. Boston
• Cody Freeman OVER Hits vs. Athletics (Gage Jump)
• Jackson Jobe OVER Strikeouts vs. Minnesota (Taj Bradley)

Kirby’s recent volatility, Freeman’s hot streak against a struggling staff, and Jobe’s swing-and-miss upside against a cold Twins lineup make for a well-rounded slip heading into Sunday’s action.