3 Best MLB Hits Props to Back Today: Henderson, Greene, and Marte

Some nights the player props board is a maze of coin-flip lines and stale numbers. Monday night’s MLB slate is not one of those nights. Between a heating-up Riley Greene, a Gunnar Henderson longball threat with a plus number attached, and Ketel Marte quietly running one of the most automatic hit streaks in the league, there’s a legitimate case for stacking all three without overthinking it.

This isn’t a themed article built around strikeouts or a single stat category — it’s simply the three best plays on the entire board today, regardless of what kind of prop they are. Two of them are heavily favored “safe” hits props from guys who basically never go hitless, and the third is a plus-money value play on a top-five AL slugger who’s due. Here’s the breakdown.

Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Hits (+180)

Start with the value play. Henderson is hitting just .221 this season, which is exactly why this number sits at plus money in the first place — but the shallow batting average is hiding real thump underneath it. He’s already got 18 home runs and 97 hits on the year, and a two-hit game from him is far from a stretch when he’s seeing pitches he can drive.

Tonight he draws Tigers righty Troy Melton, who’s been excellent by ERA (1.95) but has thrown just 60 innings this season — a small sample against a lineup that’s going to see him for the first time in a meaningful way. Henderson has multi-hit ability built into his game even in a down average year, and getting nearly 2-to-1 on a two-hit outcome from a former MVP-caliber bat is the kind of number that’s tough to pass on.

The Orioles as a team have been finding ways to scratch out extra-base hits against Detroit pitching this season, and Henderson sits in the middle of that lineup as the primary power threat. At plus-money odds, this is the swing-for-more play of the three.

Riley Greene Over 0.5 Hits (-238)

Greene is the hottest bat on this list by a wide margin. Over his last seven games he’s hitting .370 with four home runs, and he’s carrying a .316 average with five homers over his last 15. That’s not a guy who’s due for positive regression — that’s a guy who’s already locked in and finding barrels at an elite rate right now.

He gets Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer tonight, and Greene has been a tough matchup for right-handed pitching for most of this stretch. At .281/.369/.464 for the season with 108 hits already banked, a single hit is about as close to the floor of his game as it gets — this line has been priced accordingly at -238, and given the recent form, it’s still a number worth laying.

The Tigers need production out of the middle of their order in a game they’re currently favored in on the road, and Greene has been the one supplying it all month. This is about as close to a lock as a hits prop gets on a given night.

Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Hits (-278)

Marte rounds out the trio as the safest — and priciest — play on the card. He’s hitting .254 with 19 home runs and 105 hits across 102 games this season, and he’s been one of the more consistent everyday hitters in the National League all year. Tonight he faces Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler, who’s scuffled to a 3-8 record and a 4.47 ERA, allowing 84 hits across just over 100 innings.

A number this steep (-278) isn’t glamorous, but it’s steep for a reason — Marte simply doesn’t go hitless very often, and a struggling starter on the mound for Pittsburgh only tilts things further in his favor. This is the type of prop built to anchor a bigger parlay rather than stand alone for value, but on its own merits, it’s about as close to a sure thing as the board offers today.

Lock These In

None of these three requires a leap of faith. Two are short-priced favorites from hitters in strong recent form, and the third is a value number on a bat that’s already produced 18 homers this year even with the average lagging behind. Stack all three, or single them out — either way, this is the strongest collection of hits props the board has to offer.

• Gunnar Henderson OVER 1.5 Hits (+180)
• Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Hits (-238)
• Ketel Marte OVER 0.5 Hits (-278)

Check current lines at your preferred sportsbook before locking anything in, since prices shift closer to first pitch — but the shape of all three plays here is sound as of today’s slate.