The MLB Season is closing in, and I cannot be more excited for the grind ahead! Futures are always fun as they give you something to cheer for all season long! I have targeted a handful of starting pitcher props and locked in on Bobby Witt.
If by chance we get lucky enough to avoid injuries with our picks I believe all of these will have us sweating and cheering them on in late August and September!
Crochet Moves to Boston
Last season we got to witness Garrett Crochet be the only bright spot for the Chicago White Sox. In 146 innings pitched, he racked up 209 strikeouts and a 3.58 ERA. Now while he did pitch 32 games last season, I expect that number to be about the same, but I expect him to see north of 170+ innings pitched.
Health is going to play a key role in every one of these plays. If Crochet stays healthy, I expect his 6.5 Ks/game to see a slight uptick to 7+ next year. He will face some tough opponents this season, but I expect the Yankees strikeout rate to increase minus Soto and he has a good shot at the Cy Young!
Crochet had about the most electric stuff in 2024. He ranked 90+ percentile in almost every pitching category, according to Baseball Savant. He ranked 98th percentile with a 35% strikeout percentage, and 93rd percentile with a 33% whiff and chase rates, electric stuff!
Riding the Royals This Season
I have to stick Ragans in here at +150 and see where the chips fall. He finished last season with 223 strikeouts in 32 games and 186 innings pitched. Again, health will matter but if he can find 175+ innings or more I 100% expect him to find at least 215.
Ragans averaged 7 Ks per game last season, along with a 3.14 ERA, and while I do expect hitters to adjust to both of these young pitchers I wrote about, they have a deadly arsenal. His 95 mph four seamer, dropping to a 85 mph changeup and 86 mph slider can get hitters to miss a lot of swings.
Ragan sits a little behind the electricity of Crochet, but still a top tier pitcher sits at 90th percentile in wiff% at 32%, and 88th percentile in K% at 29%.
Two Man Race for Top Hitter
Can we get another head-to-head race between Bobby Witt Jr and Luis Arraez this season? Arraez has been on the top of this list the last few years and I expect both of these guys to push for the top crown again. Witt got the best of Luis last season finishing with 211 hits to 200.
As long as the pitchers continue to pitch to Witt, I do believe the 180 and 190 hit marks have too low of odds. Sure, after his breakout season in 2024, a lot of people assume some regression, well I do not. I believe this season will be up to par, if not his best season of his career.
In 161 games played, he finished with 211 hits, and in 2023 he played 158 games with 177 hits. In 3 more games, he amassed 34 more hits. If we can get 158+ games again I do believe he gets to 190+, and we can have a fun sweat to hit 200 late in the season!
2025 MLB Futures Bets:
- 1% Garrett Crochet 200 Ks (-120)
- 1% Zach Wheeler 200 Ks (-120)
- 1% Dylan Cease 210 Ks (-105)
- 1% Cole Ragans 210 Ks (+150)
Bobby Witt Jr Hits Ladder:
- 1% To Record 180 Hits (-115)
- 0.5% To Record 190 Hits (+130)
- 0.5% To Record 200 Hits (+195)
- 0.25% Record Most Hits (+800)
