After cashing on Tarik Skubal at +2200 in 2024, we’re closing our previews for the upcoming baseball season with the AL Cy Young odds and best bets. Skubal was a no-doubt winner from wire-to-wire last year.
The Tigers’ ace led all pitchers in wins, strikeouts, and WAR, paving the way for the franchise’s first playoff series victory since 2013. He is the favorite again in 2025, though Red Sox trade acquisition Garrett Crochet is expected to make it closer than the unanimous victory Skubal achieved last season.
Garrett Crochet Will Push Skubal All Year Long
Crochet took the mound on Opening Day for the White Sox as essentially an unknown player to casual fans and made the most of his opportunity. The 6’6” lefty was electrifying in the first half and was named to the All-Star team with 12.6 K/9, a 0.950 WHIP, and a 3.02 ERA.
His innings were severely limited in the second half because of a team-imposed innings limit, but he showed enough to garner a major offseason move from the Red Sox and will now pitch on Opening Day for them in 2025.
Don't Forget Ragans and Gilbert
Cole Ragans and Logan Gilbert finished in the top six of Cy Young voting last year amid breakout seasons, during which they were named All-Stars for the first time. Ragans and Cy Young runner-up Seth Lugo spearheaded a Royals rotation that ranked fourth in FIP, while the former posted career highs in innings and strikeouts and led the AL in K/9.
Gilbert became one of six pitchers since 2000 to throw at least 205 innings, rack up 220+ strikeouts, and finish with a WHIP below 0.900. The pride of Stetson University, Gilbert has taken the mantle of being the Mariners’ ace from Luis Castillo and will start on Opening Day for a Seattle team expected to compete for a playoff berth.
Can deGrom Finally Stay Healthy for Texas?
Two-time NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom has started just nine games in two seasons since joining the Rangers, but is preparing for his first fully healthy season since 2019. He’s been managing his velocity in Spring Training to protect his arm and will pitch from the back of the Rangers rotation to begin the season.
Houston has a strong duo at the top of its rotation in Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. Valdez is second in the American League among pitchers in WAR since 2022 and has a reputation for going deep into games and inducing timely ground balls. Brown was among the best in the AL over the second half, posting a 2.26 ERA and 9.3 K/9 after a more volatile first 20 starts. The 26-year-old is expected to take another step forward in 2025, giving the Astros a formidable combination to lead their rotation.
Best Bets
Logan Gilbert +1100 (DraftKings)
Framber Valdez +2000 (FanDuel)
Gavin Williams +7000 (DraftKings)
Gilbert’s counting stats were as impressive as any pitcher in the American League last season, as he accumulated innings and strikeouts while avoiding walks and hits at the best rate in baseball. His downfalls were pitching for a team that couldn’t lift him to many winning decisions and giving up hard contact when batters connected. His average exit velocity was in the 27th percentile in 2024, an improvement of nearly a full mile per hour over the previous season. Gilbert could put together an award-winning effort if he continues to induce hitters to chase at an elite rate and further reduce exit velocity.
Valdez is another innings eater from the AL West who could emerge from the pack in 2025. He is among the best in the MLB with a 61.7% ground ball rate and a barrel rate of just 5.3%, both of which enable him to go deep into starts. Should he stay healthy for a full 33 starts this year, we could easily see him breaking the 200 mark for innings and strikeouts while posting a sub-3.00 ERA for a division-winning team. That could be the formula that wins Valdez more consideration from voters.
Finally, Gavin Williams is looking like 2025 may be the season he lives up to the high expectations Cleveland had when they selected him in the first round of the 2021 MLB Draft. On the heels of an injury-shortened 2024, Williams came out firing in the spring. He hurled 17.1 innings across five appearances while striking out 26 (13.5 K/9) and maintaining a 2.08 ERA and a 0.981 WHIP. Williams worked his way up to five innings in his final Spring Training start and will be the Guardians’ number two arm in the rotation behind Tanner Bibee. We expect big things from a healthy Williams in 2025 and like him as a dark horse Cy Young pick.
