The most competitive division in baseball this season, as projected by the oddsmakers, is the American League Central. The Twins, Royals, Tigers, and Guardians all have nearly identical outlooks for 2025, with win projections between 82.5 and 84.5 at multiple sportsbooks.
There is no “big fish” among this group on the balance sheets. The Twins have the highest team salary projected for 2025 among AL Central teams, ranking 17th in total allocation for this season, followed by the Tigers 18th, the Royals 20th, the Guardians 25th, and the White Sox, 28th in Major League Baseball.
In terms of significant moves this offseason, Chicago, Cleveland, and Kansas City executed trades that will impact their organizations to varying degrees. The White Sox loaded up on prospects in dealing Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox. None of the players received in the deal will open the season in the Major Leagues.
Key Off-Season Moves for Cleveland, KC, and Detroit
Cleveland dealt All-Star first baseman Josh Naylor to Arizona in exchange for pitcher Slade Cecconi, who will open the season on the IL with a strained oblique. The Royals acquired utility man Jonathan India, who can play all over the field and will hit leadoff in 2025, for pitcher Brady Singer.
The Tigers opted for a different path and led the division in free agent spending by a wide margin this summer. Jack Flaherty, whom Detroit sent to LA at the deadline in 2024, was welcomed back on a surprisingly reasonable deal that will cost the team $35 million over two seasons.
Veteran pitcher Alex Cobb and two-time All-Star second baseman Gleybar Torres both inked one-year, $15 million contracts to come to the Motor City, and Torres’ Yankee teammate Tommy Kahnle signed for the 2025 season to fortify the team’s bullpen.
Minnesota Favored to Take Division Crown
Minnesota has been given the slight edge to win the division by oddsmakers in this talented collection of teams. The Twins finished 10.5 games behind the Guardians a season ago, and although three teams from the Central made the postseason, Minnesota was not among them.
The key factor upon which their 2025 hopes rest is health. Players like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis all missed at least 60 games last year, and Lewis is already on the IL before an official pitch has been thrown in their season.
The Royals and Guardians hope their superstar leaders can spur division-winning efforts for their organizations. Bobby Witt Jr., the 2024 AL MVP runner-up who won both the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove at shortstop, led baseball in batting average and hits while reaching the 30-30 plateau for the second straight time last year.
Cleveland’s José Ramirez is coming off his fifth Silver Slugger, tied a career-best with 39 homers in 2024, and will be surrounded by faces new (Kyle Manzardo, Nolan Jones) and old (Carlos Santana) in the Guardians’ lineup for 2025.
2025 AL Central Best Bets (DraftKings)
KC to Win Division +270
3 Teams from AL Central Make Postseason +475
The Royals lineup will have a consistent, versatile leadoff hitter in India who could score 100+ runs if he pushes his OBP above .350 again, with Bobby Witt, Vinny Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez protecting him in the lineup.
KC’s pitching staff looks relatively similar to 2024 but with the addition of Kris Bubic, who spent last season in the bullpen and posted 11.8 K/9 and a 1.95 FIP in 30 innings. The Royals have a great shot at coming out of the Central if the top of their batting order, especially Vinny P, stays healthy and produces as expected.
When looking toward the playoffs, there’s a distinct possibility this division will repeat the feat of being represented by three teams. Cleveland is expected to take a step back in 2024 but could still win 85+ games to compete for a Wild Card berth, while Detroit should have the talent and depth to go with their encouraging postseason experience gained a season ago.
Minnesota will have as much success as health will allow this year, but it has a strong claim to a playoff spot if its key players appear in 140+ games. The kicker is that all four of these teams can bolster their records against the White Sox to remain afloat through the difficult stretches of the season.
