Rose Bowl Betting Preview: Predictions and Best Bet for Alabama vs Indiana

The “Granddaddy of Them All” is the site of the third CPF Quarterfinal this season, featuring the No. 9-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3) taking on the No. 1-ranked Indiana Hoosiers (13-0) on Thursday.

Alabama’s inclusion into the playoffs was highly scrutinized. Despite owning impressive SEC wins, the Crimson Tide had lost twice in the final month of the season, including a 28-7 drubbing to the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship contest. They silenced their critics by defeating the Oklahoma Sooners 34-24 in the CFP opening round.

Indiana locked up its spot in the playoffs with a 13-10 win over the then-undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big 10 title game. The Hoosiers are looking for redemption and a long playoff run after dropping an opening-round playoff game last season against Notre Dame.

It’s a role reversal for these two schools: Alabama ranks among the winningest programs in college football while Northwestern just surplanted Indiana as the country’s losingest football-playing school. Can the Tide turn the tide on this narrative and produce an upset of epic proportions? We’ll cover that and our favorite prop bets for this year’s Rose Bowl.

Indiana Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards

Indiana achieved multiple firsts this season, including the crowning of quarterback Fernando Mendoza as the program’s only Heisman winner. It was a well-deserved accomplishment as the signal-caller completed 71.5 percent of his passes for 2,980 yards, 33 touchdowns, and only six picks.

He was effective on the ground, too. In 2025, Mendoza ran 69 times for 240 yards. In six of his team’s 13 outings, he finished with at least 24 rushing yards. Alabama’s defense struggles with mobile quarterbacks. Take the Heisman winner to finish with at least 22 rushing yards as he covers his rushing prop total.

Alabama Crimson Tide QB Ty Simpson OVER 240.5 Passing Yards

When Alabama was 8-1 and ranked third in the country, quarterback Ty Simpson was being discussed as the Crimson Tide’s next Heisman winner. A late-season slump kept him from completing that goal.

Still, Simpson has completed 64 percent of his passes for 3,500 yards, 28 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He’s also coming off a strong showing against Oklahoma, throwing for 232 yards and two touchdowns in his rematch with the Sooners.

The Crimson Tide will need him on Thursday because Indiana is among the nation’s best at stopping opponents’ rushing attacks. Expect him to throw early and often, narrowly covering this passing prop total in the Rose Bowl.

Indiana Hoosiers WR Elijah Sarratt UNDER 58.5 Receiving Yards

Although teammate Omar Cooper Jr. leads the team in most categories, Indiana’s Elijah Sarratt will likely become the first Hoosier wide receiver drafted since 2014. He deserves that distinction after catching 51 passes for 687 yards and 12 touchdowns in just 10 games.

Sarratt draws significant attention from opposing defenses, allowing others to get open on the field. The Crimson Tide’s defense will likely feature a similar game plan, and bettors should take the under on his receiving prop total for this Rose Bowl matchup.

Best Bet: UNDER 47.5 Points

Defense has been the calling card for Indiana this season. The Hoosiers have allowed 10.8 points per game, ranking second in the country in that category. They’ve done that by allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per outing, allowing just 77.6 rushing yards to opponents on average.

Alabama will struggle to run the football, and Indiana will keep the Crimson Tide from lighting up the scoreboard. While picking the Hoosiers to cover their 7.5-point spread is tempting, there’s another line bettors should take.

The reason this came will fall below the 47.5-point total line is that the Crimson Tide defense is also formidable. Alabama ranks 10th in the county, allowing just 168 yards on average to opposing quarterbacks. Expect a low-scoring contest on Thursday that the Hoosiers will win.