Indiana vs Oregon: Odds, Prediction, and Best Bet for Peach Bowl

The College Football Playoff matchup between the Indiana Hoosiers and Oregon Ducks sets up as one of the best playoff matches to date. With this heavyweight rematch set on the national stage, Oregon comes in with revenge on its mind.

Oregon also comes into this game with national brand recognition, while Indiana is looking to keep its undefeated season going. It all goes down Friday night, 7:30 pm on ESPN.

Oregon Offense vs Indiana Defense

Oregon’s offense, no question, is elite; we discussed it in one of last week’s articles. Ranking inside the top 10 nationally in scoring and averaging 38 points per game. However, we saw this game playout once already this season, at Oregon, by the way, and they scored 20 points.

This will be Oregon’s second straight matchup vs elite defensive resistance. Indiana’s defense ranks 2nd nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 10.3 points per game, and is one of the best in the country at limiting explosive plays.

The Hoosiers are also elite in situational football that we like to talk about, ranking 2nd in tackles for loss and top 10 in sacks and QB hits. Just as we saw in the Alabama game, Indiana can create consistent pressure without sacrificing coverage on the back end.

Oregon’s red-zone efficiency more often than not will drop in this matchup, as Indiana’s defense has proven time and time again that it can force field goals and stalled drives rather than touchdowns.

Indiana Offense vs Oregon Defense

The Hoosiers rank 3rd nationally in scoring and 1st in third-down conversion rate, sustaining drives at the country’s top level. Against an Oregon defense that sits outside the top 100 in red-zone efficiency allowed, Indiana’s ability to finish drives could be the major edge in this game.

Indiana also holds advantages in both passing balance and rushing volume, ranking top 15 in rushing yards per game while protecting the football at an elite rate, ranking 3rd in the nation. Mendoza is one of the best at escaping pressure, can use his legs, and will not force a bad throw.

Indiana’s offense can attack you on the ground with multiple running backs and have one of the best pass catching trios in college with Cooper Jr., Sarratt and Becker.

Head-to-Head Context

Over the course of the season, The Hoosiers lead in net touchdowns, total points, rushing yards, 3rd down conversion %, red zone efficiency, and net yards. We saw these edges when these teams met earlier this year, as Indiana controlled the game in a 30–20 road win at Oregon.

In that matchup, Indiana dominated time of possession, turnover margin, and first downs completing 23 while holding Oregon to 14 first downs. I understand it’s a rematch and revenge is real, but Indiana did that to Oregon on their home turf, they should cover 4 points in this game. 3 is one of the key numbers in football, I am paying a little juice to stay under that key number.

Pick: Indiana -3 (-127, ProphetX)