Friday afternoon brings us the AutoZone Liberty Bowl with two teams moving in opposite directions. Navy finished the regular season on a high note with an emotional 18–17 victory over Army, giving the Midshipmen their third straight win.
Cincinnati limped to the finish line, losing four consecutive games and failing to cover seven points in three of those four games. That late-season slide is now compounded by roster turnover, and I don’t see how Cincinnati can recover.
Roster continuity matters more than ever in bowl games, and it favors Navy here by a landslide. Service academies rarely feel the effects of the transfer portal, and Navy looks fully loaded, besides normal injuries. Cincinnati’s situation is far more concerning.
Star quarterback Brendan Sorsby is currently the number 1-ranked QB in the transfer portal, leaving the Bearcats without the centerpiece of their offense. On top of that, Cincinnati is losing nine defenders to the portal, with Dontay Corleone and Jake Golday also expected to sit this one out, preparing for the NFL draft.
Navy Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Navy runs one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the country, ranking first nationally in rushing yards per game while sitting top 25 in EPA per play, something we don’t talk about too often. The option-heavy system forces defenses to play disciplined football for four quarters, something we saw Cincinnati struggle with even at full strength this season.
The Bearcats rank outside the top 90 in yards per play allowed and rank near the bottom nationally in tackles for loss. That lack of penetration is a major concern against a Navy offense that thrives on staying ahead of the chains.
We have seen time and time again that teams that control the ground game and the trenches usually win these games. Blake Horvath doesn’t need to throw often; he keeps defenses honest with his ability to run, and when he needs to make an explosive play in the passing game, he can do it.
Cincinnati Offense vs. Navy Defense
Cincinnati’s offense will be operating without Sorsby, and the numbers already point to inconsistency late in the year. The Bearcats rank outside the top 75 in yards per play and struggled to generate explosive plays down the stretch. If Cincinnati gets behind, it could have limited paths to catch up without Sorsby calling the shots.
Navy’s defense is well-coached, rarely beats itself, and could benefit from facing a one-dimensional offense if Brady Lichtenberg, the backup-QB, can’t get the passing game going. Navy ranks top 50 in sacks and QB hits. If they can get to Brady, they can make him uncomfortable and get him off schedule.
A fun stat here, the service academies are 19–3 against the spread in their last 22 bowl games. Motivation, preparation, and roster stability matter in this matchup, and Navy checks every box for us. Run the ball, control the clock, and grind out a 30-20 victory!
Pick: 1.5% Navy -7 (-110, Bet365)
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