College Football Week 11 Preview: Best Bets for November 7-8

As the 2025 college football regular season winds down, Week 11 offers a mix of critical conference matchups that will certainly change one teams near future.

Kicking off Friday night we get two top 25 teams in Memphis and USC playing hosts. While Saturday offers intriguing SEC and Big Ten matchups. We will be diving into the Houston/UCF and Texas A&M/Missouri Matchups!

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Saturday, September 5 at 12:00 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Oregon State Beavers	+18.5 (-112)	+800	O 51.5 (102)
Houston Cougars	-18.5 (-110)	-1200	U 50.5 (-110)

Best Bet: UCF ML (+105, ESPN)

UCF at 4-4, 1-4 in conference, is looking to stop the bleeding in 2025. They head into this matchup winners of just 1 of their last 5 games, 3 of which were on the road. Now they host a 7-2, 4-1 in conference, Houston Cougars squad, and we ask ourselves why are the odds basically pick’em?

Houston has been fantastic, beating the teams they should, and winning a huge game at Arizona State, which even got my attention. Then they went to West Virginia and got ran out of that stadium 35-45. Now we have perhaps a well-coached, but deflated Houston squad heading to Central Florida, where they tend to protect home field. This is a tough game to handicap!

Defense and home field play a big part in this play for me. UCF will be one of the best defenses Houston has faced outside of Texas Tech. They allow under 19 points per game, good for 21st in the country. They also rank 15th allowing 31% 3rd down conversion rate, 11th in passing yards allowed, and 21st at 4.5 yards per play.

Outside of the 27 points they allowed to Kansas, they allowed 13, 10, 9 and 7 in their other four home games. Houston’s defense is no slouch either and do have key advantages in the red zone, but they do allow 134 yards on the ground, which UCF will take advantage of. UCF ranks 28th rushing for just shy of 200 yards per game. If UCF’s defense can get off the field, and they can establish the run, while converting in the redzone, look for UCF to pull out a close one!

Friday, September 11 at 8:00 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Missouri Tigers	-7 (-110)	-235	O 51.5 (-110)
Kansas Jayhawks	+7 (-110)	+190	U 51.5 (-110)

Best Bet: Missouri +7 (-107, ProphetX)

Should we really trust a freshman QB who will be thrusted into the heat of battle Saturday? I think so! Look, can we really expect Texas A&M to run the slate completely undefeated? They have a huge game looming at the end of the season at Texas, but outside of that, this is the last big hurdle.

On the road this season Texas A&M beat Notre Dame by 1, Arkansas by 3, and we saw what happened to LSU. Two of their three games on the road have stayed within this margin and this may be the best defense they have seen on the road. Yes, LSU was technically better, but no one can explain what happened there, other than a team giving up on a coach.

Now back to the data, Missouri on offense completes 50% on 3rd downs while Texas A&M sits at 42%, both are relatively efficient in the red zone with A&M getting the slight edge. Outside of that Missouri has more net touchdowns, 714 more yards on offense, and a much better defense! They could be a live dog here!

Missouri ranks 13th in the country allowing 16.8 points per game, 4 yards per play ranking them 8th, 7th in passing yards allowed, and 13th in rushing yards allowed. Both teams are top 5 in defensive 3rd down conversion rate. As we talked about in the other matchup, if Missouri can get stops, and establish their rushing attack, it could be a long day for the A&M defense. Missouri ranks 10th in the country with 236 rushing yards per game. They kept Alabama within 3 and beat South Carolina by 9 at home, give me Missouri to keep this close in a dog fight!