College Football Week 10 Preview: 3 Best Bets for Saturday, November 1

We’re heading into Week 10 of the 2025 college football season, and this week has some teams trying to avoid that final nail in the coffin. With my top 3 intriguing matchups this week between Oklahoma/Tennessee, Vandy/Texas, and Cincinnati/Utah, whichever teams lose those matchups can say goodbye to any playoff hopes.

This week, I have identified two Big Ten matchups worth digging into, leaning heavily on the defenses. And we will make a pick in perhaps this week’s biggest game on the board, in one of college football’s top 3 venues (Neyland Stadium)!

Penn State Team Total Under 12.5 (-115, FanDuel)

Remove the name aside, let’s look at their last two head-to-head matchups. Penn State scored 13 at home last season and 12 at Ohio State in 2024. Now Penn State, being led by a true freshman at quarterback, in his 2nd career start, 2nd on the road in a row, heads to face the nation’s best defense.

Ohio State leads the nation, allowing a whopping 5.9 points per game. The most points Ohio State has allowed this season was at Illinois (16), outside of that game, they have held all other opponents under 10 (7,0,9,6,3, and 0). Penn State ranks #97 in total offense and ranks well below the top 50 in a majority of key statistics.

Penn State has dropped four straight and in their last two games scored 21 vs Northwestern and 24 at Iowa. I struggle to see how Penn State will convert on third down and convert red zone opportunities to touchdowns, if they get there.

Penn State ranks 110th in passing yards, and I don’t see this ground game making much movement vs Ohio State’s front seven, allowing the 8th fewest rush yards/game. The rivalry factor does matter, and Penn State usually keeps these games close, avoiding the spread. I’ll back Ohio State’s defense.

Purdue Team Total Under 14.5 (-130, DraftKings)

Purdue’s season has unraveled quickly. We cashed their opener vs Ball State, and once they got into conference play, they’ve lost 6 straight. They do look to be improved under new head coach Barry Odom, but this is a major step up in class this week for this crew.

Just two weeks ago, we saw Purdue go to Northwestern and lay an egg, losing 19-0. They were held to 17 at home to USC, 20 at Minnesota, and now traveling to the big house; this is going to be a tall task. Michigan allows 17.4 points per game, 19th best in the country, perhaps slightly skewed by the USC game, where they allowed 31 on the road. Remove that game, they allow 15 points per game!

Michigan, on the other hand, impressed me a ton in their last two games after their tough loss to USC, which we predicted. They held a very good Washington team to 7 points at home, then went to Michigan State and held them to 20 on the road.

Michigan’s defense ranks #15 in the country in yards/play, #15 averaging two turnovers per game, and #10 in tackles for loss. Even if Purdue can find some success moving the ball, Michigan’s redzone efficiency is top 25, and I believe they will force more field goals in this one. The last time these two met in 2023, Purdue scored 13 at the Big House; they scored 14 the prior game at Michigan in 2011.

Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Over 54.5 (-130, Hard Rock)

This week’s marquee matchup between Oklahoma and Tennessee has all the ingredients for fireworks. If John Mateer can get back to making big plays as we expected coming into this season, we should see a game in the 60’s or 70’s.

Tennessee enters with one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking near the top nationally in both total yardage and scoring. This is by far the best offense Oklahoma will have seen, and that is saying something coming off their other toughest offensive test, which they failed against Ole Miss.

Tennessee’s up-tempo attack constantly pressures defenses, spreading the field, forcing mismatches in space, and I believe this offense can put Oklahoma in some bad spots where they will make bad decisions. Before their game against Ole Miss, Oklahoma did not face much of a test on defense, and back-to-back weeks of facing these two offenses, with travel in between, lead me to believe Oklahoma will allow points here.

As good as Tennessee is on offense, ranking #2 in the country scoring 45 per game, that comes with a cost. With their up-tempo, high-scoring style, they don’t possess the ball for very long, offering their opponents plenty of chances to strike back, and they have. Tennessee allows 31 per game, ranking #112 in the country.

Oklahoma has struggled to find 30 points this season, but this could be a spot. Against a premier quarterback like Mateer, who could be getting healthy at the right time, give me the over in a class shootout!