College Football Betting Preview: 3 Best Bets and Parlay for Week 3

College Football Week 3 is here, as we watched NC State take down Wake Forest on the road by 10. Last week’s article lined our pockets, cashing three of the four picks; let’s try to make that two in a row!

Week 3 provides another opportunity to separate contenders from pretenders. This weekend’s slate is rather intriguing as we have a group of conference games and ranked matchups that could matter down the stretch. After evaluating the board, here are my favorite betting opportunities for this weekend.

Friday: Houston Team Total Over 23.5 (-135, DraftKings)

Friday night’s matchup gives Houston an opening to prove its offense can match the defense. CFBdepth.com has Houston’s defense ranked 24th, allowing the 3rd-lowest yards per play in the country. Houston’s offense ranks 58th in the country, scoring 31 per contest. Doing it mostly on the ground at almost 200 yards per game, behind dual-threat threat QC Conner Weigman (Texas A&M transfer), and Senior Dean Conners.

Houston has scored 27 and 35 in their first two games, while Colorado allowed 27 at home to Georgia Tech. This will be Colorado’s defense’s first road game, and CFBdepth.com has its defense ranked 77th. And while Warren Sapp has the defensive line improving, Colorado still struggles on the backend with a C+ grade overall, and the stats prove it.

Colorado ranks 94th in the country, allowing 227.5 passing yards, 122nd allowing 202 rushing yards per game, and 120th allowing a whopping 6.4 yards per play. If Houston can get the ground game going, Colorado could be in trouble in a hostile environment.

One stat I love for Houston is that they rank 35th in the country in 3rd down conversion rate, just below 50%. If Colorado can’t get off the field, we could see another 30-point outing from Houston. At 23.5, Houston has weapons to find the endzone and a defense to give them plenty of chances.

Friday: Arizona +3 (-138, DraftKings)

Paying a little for the juice here, but I think it could be worth the squeeze. My model likes Arizona -4, and while I think Arizona +1.5 or Arizona ML are good looks, Kansas State is coming off a terrible loss to Army. We also haven’t seen this Arizona squad tested against higher-caliber talent this season.

Games against Weber State and Hawaii haven’t tested Arizona, as they have won those games by a combined 88-9 score. This will be a quarterback duel as Avery Johnson and Noah Fifita are playmakers and can put points on the board in a hurry. Arizona has dominated this matchup, winning five of the seven games in the series, with Kansas State winning last season at home 31-7.

Arizona gets a chance at payback, and though Kansas State may be the better team talent-wise, and on paper, they are not playing like it. Fifita has yet to turn the ball over this season, and while that won’t sustain, it shows his ability to protect the ball which will be critical vs Kansas State.

Arizona ranks 24th in country in scoring, 4th in country in points allowed and while those will drop as they face tougher competition, Kansas State allows almost 28 points per game which ranks 104th. They rank 101st allowing 21 first downs per game, ranking 74th in 3rd down conversion allowed. Getting 3 points at home for the team playing better, with payback on their minds I am here for.

Saturday, September 26 at 12:00 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Oklahoma Sooners	+10 (-110)
Georgia Bulldogs	-10 (-110)

Saturday: Georgia Moneyline (-166, ProphetX)

While I don’t take these lines often, I think it’s the right side, and based on history, this line should be -185. I understand why it’s not, there are questions around Gunner Stockton on the road at Neyland, but this game is much more than Stockton. Georgia’s defense comes to play every single time they play Tennessee and Kirby Smart gets them locked in.

We took Georgia -7 preseason and that line has severely dropped, for good reason. Tennessee’s defense is still one of the best in the country and quarterback transfer Aguilar has given them a spark on offense.

The fact is, Georgia has beaten Tennessee EIGHT straight times, and I think they can make it nine on Saturday. Georgia has won four straight games at Neyland(according to some College Football’s toughest venue to play at), which is impressive. Even more impressive, those losses at home weren’t close, they lost by 28, 24, 29 and 41.

Georgia’s defense currently allows 6.5 points per game, Tennessee allows 21.5, ranked 73rd in the country. If Georgia can find any offense, protect the ball, and not struggle like they did last week vs Austin Peay, they should win a close game.

Saturday: Parlay — Notre Dame + LSU (-105, FanDuel)

Saturday’s card sets up well for a two-team parlay featuring Notre Dame and LSU. While both Texas A&M and Florida spreads are intriguing, I think LSU keeps it rolling at home and Notre Dame avoids losing two straight.

The Fighting Irish had chances to beat Miami and just didn’t put it all together. Once thing is for sure, Jeremiyah Love will have a better game and get featured a lot more. CJ Carr looked pretty good in his first game, especially on the road in a very tough environment. I expect Love to see 20+ touches between the ground and air; he had 16 in game 1.

Texas A&M will keep it close as they have one of the better head coaches in football, but it’s hard to trust Marcell Reece and that offense on the road. Yes, Notre Dame has had hiccups at home in September in previous years, but now they come off a loss and I think Irish win by 3+.

Florida is looking to bounce back off a very disappointing loss and they killed our sweep for our article last week as we had their -7 alt spread pair with Toledo who destroyed Western Kentucky. Things don’t get easier for Florida heading to LSU taking on a current top 3 team.

LSU looks to have the pieces with win another title, with possible #1 draft pick at QB, Nussmeier will look to keep his poise and lead the offense against a hungry and dangerous Florida defense. LSU has won 11 straight in September at home, and Florida has lost eight straight to top 5 ranked opponents. While I think +7 is a good bet on Florida to keep it close, LSU will get the victory.