Sunday’s NFL slate kicks off before most of us have finished our coffee, with the Bengals and Falcons playing at the Bernabeu in Madrid at 9:30 a.m. ET. From there it is a full day of football, which means a full day of prop board browsing. We went through the Week 9 menu and picked the three bets that look the most appetizing.
The recipe is simple: elite volume, a friendly matchup and a line that sits below what the player has actually been producing. One receiver in Seattle, one in Madrid and one running back in Miami. Lines are current at time of writing, so check your book before you place anything.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Seattle’s top receiver has gone for 100-plus yards in four straight games: 102 against the 49ers, 134 at Denver, 150 against Kansas City and 118 against Chicago last Sunday. He has 985 yards through eight games, is averaging 123.1 per game and has cleared 100 yards in seven of those eight. His only miss was a 76-yard game against the Chargers.
Volume is the whole story. Smith-Njigba is soaking up 34.2 percent of Seattle’s targets and averaging 11.1 yards per target, eighth in the league. He also has history with Arizona: 9 catches for 155 yards and three touchdowns in their Week 2 meeting. The Cardinals allow 220.5 passing yards per game and rank 30th in passing touchdowns allowed per game.
The wrinkle is at quarterback. Sam Darnold is out with a quad injury, so Drew Lock steps in, and he has been dealing with a sore elbow. The Seahawks are also around 8.5-point favorites with a total near 39.5, so a big lead and a run-heavy second half is the risk. Still, a 92.5 line for a player averaging 123 is a bargain. Some books have crept up toward 95.5, so grab the best number you can find.
| Sunday, November 8 at 4:25 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Arizona Cardinals |  +8.5 (-113) |  +360 | O 39.5 (-109) |
| Seattle Seahawks | -8.5 (-110) |  -420 | U 39.5 (-112) |
Tee Higgins Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Madrid is the early act, and Cincinnati arrives swinging. The Bengals beat Tennessee 43-36 in overtime in Week 8, and Higgins was brilliant: 10 catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns. A week earlier he caught 6 of 7 targets for 148 yards and a score at Baltimore. That is 100-plus yards in back-to-back games.
The season line is just as loud: 726 yards, 103.7 per game and a high of 157 against Jacksonville. Here is the odd part. The prop opened at 77.5, while Ja’Marr Chase’s number sits at 78.5 even though Higgins is averaging more than 30 yards a game above him. Joe Burrow leads the league in completion percentage (73.0), passing yards per game (302.1) and touchdown passes (20), and his passer rating when targeting Higgins is 132.3.
Atlanta is not a pushover downfield. The Falcons allow just 2.0 yards of separation on deep targets and have not given up a touchdown on a throw of 20-plus air yards. That is the case against, along with the travel. But Burrow threw for 462 yards last week, Atlanta is without edge rusher Samson Ebukam, and Cincinnati is a three-point favorite in a game with a 52.5-point total. That is a lot of passes to go around.
| Sunday, November 8 at 9:30 AM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Cincinnati Bengals |  -3.5 (100) |  -166 | O 52.5 (-105) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +3.5 (-118) | +154 | U 52.5 (-115) |
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
This is the sleeper of the card. Everyone talks about Gibbs the runner, and he did rush for 153 yards last week, but his work as a receiver is what makes this an easy over. He has gone for 27 or more receiving yards in six of seven games this year, and the 26.5 line on ESPN sits right below that floor.
The matchup helps. Miami allows 40.6 receiving yards a game to opposing running backs, well above this number. The Lions have also called the third-most plays in the league at 61.9 per game, and projections have Gibbs seeing close to six targets, which would put him near the top among running backs.
Detroit is a touchdown-plus favorite at Miami, so there is some risk the Lions lean on the ground late and keep Gibbs out of the passing game. Other books have the line at 30.5 or higher, so the 26.5 is the number to hunt for.
| Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Detroit Lions | -6.5 (-115) | -290 | O 50 (-107) |
| Miami Dolphins | +6.5 (-112) | +265 | U 49.5 (100) |
Lock These In
Three props, three different games and three players producing well above their numbers. Smith-Njigba brings the safest floor, Higgins brings the biggest ceiling in the early window and Gibbs brings the cheapest line on the board. Shop around before you bet, because a half-yard can matter, and our how betting odds work guide is a good refresher.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 92.5 receiving yards (-114) vs. Arizona
- Tee Higgins OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-114) vs. Atlanta in Madrid
- Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 26.5 receiving yards (-116) at Miami
Lines move all weekend and injury news can change things. To compare numbers across books, try our player prop search tool.
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