Best Bet for BetMGM $50,000 Grand Slam Jackpot on Friday, August 23: Will Vladdy Jr. Go Deep?

Welcome to Jackpot Friday! BetMGM offers an exciting promotion every Friday where you bet one player (min $10) to hit a home run and if they hit a grand slam, you’ll win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets.

Grand Slams are nearly impossible to predict, so we’ll be looking at the same factors of a player to just hit a home run. Generally, with home runs, I’m looking at a few factors: Weather conditions, opposing pitcher, and rolling barrel rate/ wRC+ for the batter.

Unlike FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, we’re less focused on games that will produce a lot of home runs and more focused on an individual matchup. We’ll be tracking our progress on this promo on EWB and hopefully cash in on our share of $50K this season!

21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Rewards are non-withdrawable and bonus bets that expire in 7 days. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, PR, or Ontario.

Best Bet for Friday, August 23rd: Vladimir Gurrero Jr. (+475)

The Blue Jays host today’s matchup against the Angels inside Rogers Centre on what will be a pleasant afternoon across the country, weather-wise. We don’t have any wind factors of note, given the dome setting.

We’re opposing Jack Kochanowicz in this one, who has struggled early in his major league career. He’s posted a 0% K-BB which is as bad as it gets, simply unable to put away major league hitters. He’s a sinker/curve pitcher, who excels at forcing ground balls (57.5% ground ball rate).

While keeping the ball on the ground might have gotten him this far, it’s going to be hard for him to succeed at the major league level if he continues to struggle with hard contact. This issue is coupled with his low whiff rate (14%) which doesn’t promote well for his major league career. Despite the overall ground ball rate, he’s given up a home run in each of his four starts in the majors.

I’m backing Vladimir Guerrero in this one, as Vladdy has been on a tear for the Blue Jays in 2024. One concern in this one is that Vladdy does have a tendency to hit the ball on the ground and only has a 7-degree average launch angle.

That being said, I think the number we’re getting is big enough to account for that tendency. Guerrero is the team leader in hard hit%, xwOBA, and xSLG, making him the most likely candidate to make hard contact against a pitcher who is clearly susceptible.

Guerrero also has tremendous vision at the plate and will force Kochanowicz to keep the ball in the zone. Most of Kochanowicz’s misses are going to come below the plate and away to right-handed hitters, which Guerrero should be able to lay off.

We’ll look for Guerrero to force a mistake (perhaps with the bases loaded) and cash at +475. BetMGM is giving us the best price on the market at +525 for Vladdy. Let’s hope the Blue Jays can load them up and help us cash in on the Jackpot!