Best Bet for BetMGM $50,000 Grand Slam Jackpot on Friday, August 2: Roll with Ramos!

Welcome to Jackpot Friday! BetMGM offers an exciting promotion every Friday where you bet one player (min $10) to hit a home run and if they hit a grand slam, you’ll win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets.

Grand Slams are nearly impossible to predict, so we’ll be looking at the same factors of a player to just hit a home run. Generally, with home runs I’m looking at a few factors: Weather conditions, opposing pitcher, and rolling barrel rate/ wRC+ for the batter.

Unlike Fanduel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, we’re less focused on games that will produce a lot of home runs and more focused on an individual matchup. We’ll be tracking our progress on this promo on EWB and hopefully cash in on our share of $50K this season!

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Best Bet for Friday, August 2nd: Heliot Ramos (+320)

We have a great matchup for this Friday with the San Francisco Giants heading into Cincinnati to face the Reds. As you may know Great American Ballpark is one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league. We’ll look to oppose Reds pitcher Andrew Abott this Friday evening.

Andrew Abbott has been solid but unspectacular for the Reds in 2024. He’s not a particularly hard thrower and doesn’t generate a ton of swing and miss (18.1% K-rate and 9.1% K-BB). Abbotts stats look pretty similar on the surface year over year, but I have a feeling that this won’t be sustainable.

Abbott’s entire game is built on generating weak contact, but he doesn’t exactly keep the ball on the ground with just a 33.6% ground ball rate. His hard-hit rate is down from 42.5% to 33.1% in 2024, but his barrel rate is consistent at just above 9%. His launch angle and barrel numbers are the same but the average exit velocity and max EV on balls in play are lower in 2024.

Perhaps this is in line with some of the data we’re seeing about home runs being down this year despite similar contact metrics to 2023? Despite this, Abbott’s K rate has dropped by 8% year over year, and I would bet that something is going to give here. He’s given up four home runs in his last 3 starts and I think the Giants can continue that trend.

Why We Like Ramos

I’ll be rolling with Heliot Ramos in this one, who’s been by far the Giants best hitter against left-handed pitching. He has a .426 AVG with a 273 wRC+, .441 .ISO and 7 home runs against lefties in 2024.

These are just absurd numbers for the Giants outfielder who should be able to take advantage of a pretty weak matchup in Andrew Abbott. The bookmakers seem to agree with this as Ramos’ price is below 300 at most shops.

However, BetMGM is giving us the best price on the market at +320 for Heliot Ramos. Let’s hope the Giants can load them up and help us cash in on the Jackpot!