Best Bet for BetMGM $50,000 Grand Slam Jackpot on Friday, August 16: Will India Light Up KC?

Welcome to Jackpot Friday! BetMGM offers an exciting promotion every Friday where you bet one player (min $10) to hit a home run and if they hit a grand slam, you’ll win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets.

Grand Slams are nearly impossible to predict, so we’ll be looking at the same factors of a player to just hit a home run. Generally, with home runs I’m looking at a few factors: Weather conditions, opposing pitcher, and rolling barrel rate/ wRC+ for the batter.

Unlike FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, we’re less focused on games that will produce a lot of home runs and more focused on an individual matchup. We’ll be tracking our progress on this promo on EWB and hopefully cash in on our share of $50K this season!

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Best Bet for Friday, August 16th: Jonathan India (+525)

The Reds host the Royals for an interleague matchup in Cincinnati this Friday evening. The Reds are coming off a three game sweep of the Cardinals and the offense seems to be finding a rhythm. Summertime in Cincy is generally a good bet for home runs and tonight we’ll have temperatures in the 80s with some humidity as well.

I’m looking to oppose Michael Lorenzen in this one, who’s making his third start for the Royals since the Rangers dealt him at the deadline. Lorenzen is an example of a reverse split pitcher where he struggles more against right-handed batters. His cutter/slider going into lefties paired with his changeup is a much more effective arsenal against left-handed hitters, so Jonathan India looks to fit the bill.

Lorenzen has struggled this year despite a 3.79 ERA overall. He has an extremely poor K-BB ratio at 6.7%, posting a double digit walk ratio and simply not missing any bats. Lorenzen does generate a decent amount of soft contact, but he doesn't keep the ball on the ground at an elite rate. He’s lost some velocity over the years which has hurt him (also being a full-time starter forces his average velocity down).

India is Heating Up

Jonathan India looks to be breaking out of his slump in the month of August, hitting two home runs in Wednesday’s victory over the Cardinals. At +525, it looks like we’re getting an inflated line for the Reds leadoff hitter.

While it hasn’t been a spectacular year for India, he is the team's leader in xwOBA and among the top in SLG%. I’d consider Ty France and Tyler Stephenson as other options pending the lineup release from the Reds. For now, I think India is the best price of the bunch and will be rolling with him.

BetMGM is giving us the best price on the market at +525 for Jonathan India. Let’s hope the Reds can load them up and help us cash in on the Jackpot!