Gerrit Cole's 2026 comeback story has been one of the best in baseball this year, but his most recent outing served as a reminder that he's still working his way back into elite form. The Yankees' ace allowed four runs on six hits in 5.1 innings against the Guardians in his last start — three of those runs came via the long ball — and now he gets another crack at Cleveland, this time at Progressive Field for a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch Tuesday night. The Yankees bring a 39-26 record into town, while the Guardians sit at 37-31, making this a matchup between two legitimately competitive American League clubs with real playoff stakes attached.
On the other mound, Cleveland will counter with right-hander Slade Cecconi, who enters at 3-5 with a 4.92 ERA. The pitching matchup strongly favors New York on paper, but this game is far from a guaranteed Yankee win. Cleveland plays better at home, and Cecconi, despite his rough-looking record, has shown flashes of keeping hitters off-balance.
The Market Likes New York, But the Number Has Moved
The Yankees opened as roughly -134 to -145 favorites on the moneyline, depending on the book, and while those prices have drifted around, New York remains firmly in control of the line. FanDuel has the Yankees at -134 with Cleveland at +114. The run line has New York favored by 1.5 runs at +122, with Cleveland covering at -146. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, with the over at -105 and the under at -115.
The slight lean toward the under makes sense given that Cole, when at his best, is a ground-ball and strikeout generator who keeps run totals down. But Cecconi has struggled against top-end offenses, and the Yankees' lineup is stacked enough to chase him early. At -134, the Yankees moneyline is reasonable but not quite at value — the true edge might be on the first five innings run line given how Cole-led games tend to play out early.
Cole's Comeback and a Lineup Built to Win Now
Cole missed the entire 2025 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, which makes his 2026 comeback all the more impressive. In his first two starts of the year — against Tampa Bay and Kansas City — he was almost untouchable, pitching 12.2 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts and just three walks. His efficiency was borderline historic for a pitcher working his way back from TJS. Then came the Cleveland start, where he allowed three home runs and was knocked around for four runs before the Yankees pulled him after 5.1 innings.
Cole carries a 1-1 record and a 2.00 ERA into tonight, with 14 strikeouts and just four walks in 18 innings. Given his velocity and stuff, the bad Cleveland start looks more like a blip than a trend. Ben Rice has emerged as one of New York's best offensive players this season, hitting .304 with 18 home runs — remarkable production batting second in the Yankees' order. Paul Goldschmidt adds veteran pop at .274 with eight home runs, and Cody Bellinger has hit .276 with nine home runs to give New York dangerous middle-of-the-order threats.
The Guardians, despite their modest record, are not a team to take lightly. Jose Ramirez is a perennial force at third base, slashing .238/.343/.425 with 10 home runs through the first two months. Travis Bazzana is one of the better young hitters in the AL, batting .263 from the leadoff spot. The concern for Cleveland is that Cecconi has been hit hard by offenses with real left-handed power — which the Yankees have in abundance. His 4.92 ERA and 1.433 WHIP tell the story of a pitcher who doesn't miss enough bats and allows too many baserunners to pile up.
Head-to-head, New York has controlled this series in recent years, and Cole's presence — even coming off a shaky start against this exact team — gives the Yankees a meaningful edge. Progressive Field can be a tough environment for visitors, especially with Cleveland's crowd getting behind Ramirez and company. But the Yankees' lineup depth and Cole's track record as a big-game pitcher tilt the scales.
The public is siding with New York at roughly 81 percent on the moneyline, which could cause line movement toward Cleveland late. Sharp money tends to chase value against lopsided public sides, so watching where the line settles before first pitch is worth paying attention to if you're shopping odds.
Prediction and Best Bet
Cole gets his redemption start against the team that roughed him up last time out. The Yankees' lineup has enough power to knock Cecconi around early, and Cole should settle in after a shaky outing and deliver quality work deep into the game. New York wins this one, though it won't be a blowout.
- Prediction: Yankees 5, Guardians 2
- Best Bet: Yankees moneyline (-134)
At -134, the Yankees moneyline represents a reasonable price to back Cole's bounce-back against an inferior starting pitcher. The matchup is too skewed in New York's favor to overthink it — Cole is motivated, the lineup is deep, and Cleveland is sending out a starter who has consistently struggled against quality opposition.
