Monday night at Citizens Bank Park doubles as a coming-out party for two things at once: the 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby and a brand-new home for it on the streaming map. Kyle Schwarber gets to swing for the fences in his own building, a loaded field of sluggers is chasing him, and for the first time in the event’s history, you won’t find it anywhere near your cable guide.
A Streaming Curveball Nobody Saw Coming
Every prior Home Run Derby lived on ESPN. Not this one. Netflix has exclusive live rights to the 2026 Derby, and the switch changes how millions of fans need to plan their Monday night. Pre-Derby coverage kicks off around 7:00 p.m. ET, with the competition itself getting underway at 8:00 p.m. ET, live from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
Any active Netflix subscription unlocks the broadcast — there’s no separate pay-per-view charge or Derby-specific add-on required. That means the $8.99-a-month Standard with Ads tier works exactly as well as the $26.99 Premium 4K plan for actually watching the event; the difference is just picture quality and whether ads interrupt the action. One wrinkle worth flagging for anyone who assumed MLB.TV would cover them: it won’t. Netflix’s exclusivity window blacks out the live stream on MLB.TV, so cord-cutters who rely on that service will need to open the Netflix app instead. North of the border, Sportsnet carries regional All-Star Week programming for Canadian viewers who want a broadcast alternative.
It’s a meaningful shift for the sport, and it also changes the betting-viewing habit loop a little — second-screen prop bets and live odds checks now happen alongside a streaming app rather than a cable remote.
Schwarber Enters as the Hometown Favorite, But Is He the Right Price?
Kyle Schwarber doesn’t need a scouting report from Philadelphia fans. He leads all of Major League Baseball in home runs this season with 32, he topped the National League with 56 last year, and now he gets to put on a show in the ballpark he calls home. Sportsbooks have installed him as the favorite at +340, and the logic isn’t complicated — big raw power, comfort in the building, and a crowd that will be fully in his corner from his very first swing. Anyone shopping MLB odds across books will notice how tightly Schwarber and Caminero are bunched at the top compared to the rest of the field.
The harder question is whether “favorite” and “best value” are the same thing here. Junior Caminero sits right behind him at +425, and a growing chorus of analysts thinks the gap between those two numbers is too wide. Caminero has fewer total home runs this season (27 to Schwarber’s 32), but the way he got there matters: he launched 11 homers in an 11-day stretch from June 23 through July 4, an absurd hot streak that happened to land right before this event. Add in bat speed that grades in the 100th percentile among all hitters, and it’s easy to see why some evaluators, including BetMGM’s own staff prediction, are calling Caminero undervalued relative to Schwarber at the top of the board. Bettors weighing that gap might want to check a BetMGM promo before placing a derby prop.
The Full Odds Board
Beyond the top two, the field spreads out with a mix of established sluggers and genuine long shots. Here’s how the eight participants and their current FanDuel promo and BetMGM consensus odds stack up entering Monday night.
- Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) — 32 HRs this season, +340
- Junior Caminero (Rays) — 27 HRs, +425
- Munetaka Murakami (White Sox) — 20 HRs, +470
- Jordan Walker (Cardinals) — 22 HRs, +600
- Jac Caglianone (Royals) — 14 HRs, +650
- Bryce Harper (Phillies) — 20 HRs, +850
- Ben Rice (Yankees) — 25-29 HRs, +900
- Willson Contreras (Red Sox) — 20 HRs, +1100
One notable absence from the bracket: reigning champion Cal Raleigh is not participating in this year’s Derby, which opens the door a little wider for a first-time winner to be crowned in Philadelphia.
Why Murakami and Caglianone Are the Sneaky Plays
Derby history rewards a specific skill set — not just total home runs during the regular season, but the ability to consistently barrel a ball and send it a long way in a batting-practice setting. That’s exactly where Munetaka Murakami and Jac Caglianone get interesting at their respective prices.
Murakami has produced some of the loudest contact of anyone in this field. He’s hit a 451-foot home run this season and has multiple batted balls clocked at 114-plus mph off the bat — the kind of exit velocity that turns a Derby round into a highlight reel. At +470, he’s priced as a clear tier below the top two, but Bleacher Report’s own prediction actually has him winning the whole thing, edging Schwarber in an epic final round.
Caglianone is the more unconventional case. He has the fewest home runs in the field this season at just 14, which is why he sits at +650. But total homers during the year and Derby success aren’t the same currency — distance and raw juice matter more once the format shifts to pure power display. Caglianone leads every single player in this field in average home run distance at 419 feet, well ahead of hitters with far gaudier season-long home run totals. In a timed, all-or-nothing derby round, that kind of average carry can produce a hot streak that outpaces bigger names in a hurry. Jordan Walker also deserves a mention in this bucket — he ranks fifth in MLB in average exit velocity at 94.3 mph and hit a 459-foot blast of his own this season, giving him a similar boom-or-bust profile at +600.
Harper’s Ballpark Edge and the Rest of the Field
Bryce Harper is the other Phillie in the bracket, and while his +850 price reflects a lower home run total than Schwarber’s, he shares the same home-park comfort. Harper’s numbers back up the idea that Citizens Bank Park brings out something extra in him — his OPS at home this season sits at .924, compared to .819 on the road, a gap that suggests he could feed off a friendly crowd the same way Schwarber figures to.
Ben Rice arrives from the Yankees with one of the more efficient power profiles in the sport. His home run-to-fly ball ratio of 28.9% ranks second in all of baseball, meaning when he lifts the ball, it leaves the yard at an elite rate — a trait that plays well in a derby setting where every swing is essentially a fly ball attempt. Willson Contreras rounds out the field as the longest shot at +1100, representing the Red Sox with 20 home runs on the season and the toughest odds to clear in Philadelphia. For anyone new to derby prop formats, our MLB betting guide breaks down how these markets typically move once the event starts.
The Betting Angle
The market has this priced as roughly a two-horse race between Schwarber and Caminero, and there’s a case for both favorites being live. But derby history is littered with players who didn’t lead the field in home runs walking away with the trophy, simply because distance, bat speed, and a hot round at the right moment matter more than a full season’s stat line. That’s the argument for treating Murakami and Caglianone as more than just field-filler at longer prices — both have specific, verifiable power traits (114-plus mph exit velocity for Murakami, a field-best 419-foot average distance for Caglianone) that translate directly to derby success. Whichever way bettors lean, the smarter play Monday night might be pairing a favorite with one of those two dark horses rather than going all-in on the top of the board alone. Shopping lines through a DraftKings promo code or another book before the 8:00 p.m. ET start is worth the extra few minutes given how close the top of the market is priced.
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