3 NHL Best-of-the-Board Props to Back on November 6: Boldy, Celebrini and Fantilli

Friday night is the NHL’s appetizer course: just three games, and two of them are sitting right in our wheelhouse. Columbus visits Buffalo at 7:00 p.m. ET, then San Jose heads to Minnesota at 8:00 p.m. ET. Short slate, big opinions, and a mixed plate of props to match.

We went with one goal scorer and two shots-on-goal plays, each backed by recent usage and a matchup or schedule spot that favors the player. No coin flips dressed up as analysis. Here is the board.

Matt Boldy Anytime Goal Scorer (+130)

Minnesota’s left winger has quietly turned into a nightly menace. Matt Boldy has 7 goals, 9 assists and 72 shots on goal through 17 games, and he arrives off a one-goal, one-assist, four-shot night in Philadelphia. Over his last five games he has fired four, three, four, two and three shots on goal, so he is getting looks every single night, and he has points in eight of his last ten games.

The matchup is a gift. San Jose has lost three straight, including a 7-2 beating in Los Angeles on Wednesday, and the Sharks rank 27th in the league in goals against at 3.53 per game. Yaroslav Askarov is the projected starter with a .887 save percentage. Minnesota is 11-3-3, leads the Central, and is a heavy home favorite on the moneyline, exactly the kind of game script that feeds a top-line winger shots in front of a shaky goalie.

At around +130, the price implies a probability near 43 percent. Boldy has scored in roughly 41 percent of his games this season, and the matchup nudges that number up. Dimers has him at 46.6 percent, a 3.1 percent edge. If you need a reminder of the ceiling, he put up a hat trick against St. Louis on October 15. His shots-on-goal line was not posted at the book we checked, so check your book for that one before you decide to stack it.

Macklin Celebrini Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+125 DraftKings)

The Sharks are not playing well, but their best player keeps firing. Macklin Celebrini has 6 goals, 11 assists and 59 shots on goal in 15 games, which works out to just under four shots a night. San Jose also tends to be chasing games, and a trailing team throws pucks at the net. Even in that 7-2 loss at Los Angeles, the Sharks outshot the Kings 32-26.

The 3.5 line needs four shots, and his season average sits right on top of that number. At +125 on DraftKings you are getting plus-money on a play that is close to a coin flip on his average alone, and Dimers rates it at 55.5 percent, an 11.0 percent edge, the biggest on our card. Minnesota is rolling with a 5-0-1 run over its last six, so the Wild may sit on a lead and let San Jose fire from the outside, which only helps the volume.

Prices move by book, with some shops listing the over closer to -120, so shop around before you click. A half point or a few cents of juice changes the math on a prop like this, which is why a good player prop search is worth bookmarking.

Adam Fantilli Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-125 DraftKings)

Our last pick is in Buffalo, where Columbus plays the second half of a back-to-back after beating Dallas. That is a worry for the Blue Jackets’ result, not for Adam Fantilli’s shot count. The center has 4 goals, 2 assists and 40 shots on goal in 13 games, better than three a night, while playing about 21 minutes. He has cleared 2.5 shots in 13 of his last 25 prop lines, and projection models have him around 2.8 shots tonight.

The game script helps. Buffalo is a clear home favorite around -170, and Columbus ranks 27th in both goals and shots per game, so the Blue Jackets figure to spend plenty of this one chasing. A team chasing the game shoots from everywhere, and Fantilli is the guy who plays the most pressure minutes. Buffalo is also killing penalties at just 69.8 percent, so any extra power-play time is a bonus.

At -125 you are laying a small price, but Dimers has the over at 62.3 percent, a 6.7 percent edge. It is the steadiest play on the card and a fine anchor if you like building a few same game parlays on a short slate.

Lock These In

Three props, three different paths to a cash: a plus-money goal scorer against a struggling goalie, a high-volume shooter whose line sits on his average, and the steadiest shot generator on a team that will be chasing the puck. Shop your numbers, because prices can shift by book. Here is the card.

• Matt Boldy anytime goal scorer (+130)
• Macklin Celebrini OVER 3.5 shots on goal (+125 DraftKings)
• Adam Fantilli OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-125 DraftKings)

Three games on the board and three props worth a look. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.