What Prediction Markets Think About Blues vs. Senators Tonight

Ottawa has quietly been one of the best stories in hockey through the season’s first two weeks, and prediction markets are taking notice. The Senators host the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday night at Canadian Tire Centre in the first of two meetings between these clubs this year, and public betting markets currently have Ottawa as the favorite at roughly 52.5% to win, with St. Louis sitting at 47.5%. It’s close, but it’s also a matchup loaded with contrasting storylines: a surging Senators squad playing the back half of a back-to-back against a Blues team that just snapped a three-game skid with one of its best all-around efforts of the season.

What the Markets Are Saying About This One

Prediction market volume on this game has already topped $200,000, which tells you bettors are paying attention to Ottawa’s hot start. The Senators enter at 5-1-0 for 10 points, among the better records in the Atlantic Division, while the Blues sit at 2-2-1 for five points as they work through a three-game road trip. The market’s lean toward Ottawa makes sense on paper, but it’s not an overwhelming one — and the schedule spot cuts against the Senators in a way raw record doesn’t capture.

Ottawa beat New Jersey 4-1 on the road Monday night, which means tonight is the second half of a back-to-back for a team that just traveled back into Canada. That’s exactly the kind of spot where sharp bettors start asking questions about goaltending and legs, even for a team playing this well.

Ottawa’s Hot Start Runs Through Stutzle and Ullmark

Tim Stutzle has been the engine behind Ottawa’s surge, putting up 5 goals and 5 assists for 10 points through six games — numbers that put him squarely in the early-season Atlantic Division conversation. He’s getting plenty of help, too. Shane Pinto has 5 points, Drake Batherson has 3 goals, and Claude Giroux is still setting the table with 4 assists, giving the Senators scoring depth beyond their top center.

In net, Linus Ullmark has been exceptional, posting a 1.27 goals-against average across his five starts and anchoring the best stretch of hockey Ottawa has played in years. The wrinkle tonight is that Ullmark may not even play. With this being the second game of a back-to-back, the Senators could lean on backup Samuel Ersson, who carries an .886 save percentage this season — a meaningful drop-off that the market’s near pick-’em line may not be fully pricing in. Ottawa is also banged up on the back end, with Jake Sanderson, Artem Zub and Cameron Crotty all considered questionable, and Nikolas Matinpalo in doubt after absorbing a hit Monday night.

St. Louis Found Its Game Against Columbus

The Blues needed Saturday’s 5-3 comeback win over Columbus, and it showed up everywhere on the scoresheet — ten different players recorded a point. Pavel Buchnevich sealed it with an empty-netter, Dylan Holloway chipped in three assists, and Jordan Binnington stopped 20 of 23 shots to snap St. Louis’ three-game losing streak. It was the kind of complete team effort that can carry momentum into a tough road environment.

There’s also a specific trend worth flagging here: Buchnevich has a three-game point streak against Ottawa specifically, and Robert Thomas has been even more dominant in this matchup, posting 5 points and a plus-9 rating over his last five games against the Senators. St. Louis has also won three straight meetings with Ottawa and swept last year’s season series, even though the Senators hold the long-term head-to-head edge. Joel Hofer is expected to start in goal for the Blues and brings strong early-season form, including a shutout and a .930 save percentage. Depth scorers Jimmy Snuggerud, Mason McTavish and Connor McMichael have each contributed four points this season, giving St. Louis more than just its top line to lean on. The Blues are managing a long injury list, though — Torey Krug, Dillon Dube, Alexey Toropchenko, Tyler Tucker and others are all out, which puts extra pressure on the group that’s healthy and available tonight.

Fans tracking games like this one closely will want to check NHL odds throughout the day, since lines can move as goaltending news and lineup decisions become official closer to puck drop.

Prediction and Best Bet

Ottawa’s talent and depth are real, and Stutzle looks like a legitimate breakout star early on. But the back-to-back, the uncertainty around Ullmark’s availability, and St. Louis’ recent dominance in this specific series tip the scale back toward the Blues tonight. St. Louis has won three in a row against Ottawa for a reason, and Buchnevich and Thomas have both shown they know how to produce against this opponent.

• Prediction: Blues 4, Senators 3
• Best Bet: Blues on the moneyline

If Ersson gets the start in place of Ullmark, that’s the signal to lean even harder into St. Louis — a tired Ottawa defense paired with a backup netminder is the kind of spot that’s historically favored the Blues’ top forwards against this particular opponent.