Prediction Markets Favor Avalanche Over Stars in NHL Home-and-Home Rematch

Dallas and Colorado are running it back. After a chippy, fight-filled 3-2 Avalanche win in Dallas on Tuesday night, the two Western Conference heavyweights head to Ball Arena in Denver on Wednesday for the second leg of a home-and-home set just six games into the season. It already has the feel of a playoff series, and prediction markets are leaning toward more of the same result.

What the Betting Markets Are Saying

Public prediction markets currently have the Avalanche as clear favorites to win Wednesday’s rematch, pricing Colorado at roughly 56.5% to beat Dallas again, with the Stars sitting at about 43.5%. That’s a notable gap for a midweek regular-season game, and it reflects more than just home ice — it reflects what bettors watched happen just 24 hours earlier.

The contract has already drawn real volume, with 24-hour trading north of $148,000 and total volume pushing past $200,000 as the market digests lineup news out of both camps throughout the day. For a sport where regular-season home-and-homes rarely generate this kind of betting interest, the pricing is a signal in itself.

Fans tracking NHL odds all season have noticed Colorado’s knack for finding ways to win, and this market is pricing in another one.

The Tuesday Night Game Still Looms Large

Colorado’s 3-2 win in Dallas wasn’t just a result — it was a statement. Nathan MacKinnon came out of a fight bloodied, the broadcast noted a “playoff feel” to a game that was technically just the teams’ sixth of the season, and the Avalanche did all of it without two key pieces. Cale Makar missed the game for personal reasons — he and his wife were expecting twins — and Zachary L’Heureux was a healthy scratch, leaving Colorado dressing just 17 skaters (11 forwards, six defensemen) against a full Dallas roster.

That Colorado still found a way to win on the road, playing shorthanded, says plenty about the depth operating behind MacKinnon, Martin Necas and the Devon Toews-Sam Malinski pairing. If Makar and L’Heureux are both back in the lineup Wednesday, the Avalanche should be at closer to full strength heading into the rematch — one reason the market has shifted further in Colorado’s favor rather than treating this as a rivalry-building coin flip.

Dallas Is Dealing With Real Attrition Down the Middle

The bigger story for Dallas this week has nothing to do with Tuesday’s loss. Matt Duchene is done for roughly three months after abdomen and core muscle surgery, a massive blow to the Stars’ center depth that won’t have him back until mid-January. Wyatt Johnston is sidelined with an illness and isn’t expected back until around Oct. 17, and Roope Hintz’s status for Wednesday is genuinely uncertain — he didn’t speak to media after Tuesday’s game and was still being evaluated as of midweek.

That leaves a Dallas top-six that’s thinner down the middle than it looked on paper just a few days ago. The one real bright spot has been Tyler Seguin, who has scored in back-to-back games — against Pittsburgh and then again Tuesday versus Colorado — giving the Stars at least one forward trending in the right direction while others are banged up or out. Casey DeSmith is projected to get the start in net Wednesday after Jake Oettinger handled Tuesday’s game, a standard back-to-back goaltending split for a team that already has enough to manage up front.

Prediction and What the Market Implies

Given Colorado’s full-strength push, its win in Game 1 of this set, and Dallas’s center depth taking real hits this week, the prediction market’s lean toward the Avalanche tracks with the on-ice reality. A repeat Colorado win wouldn’t be a surprise, particularly if Makar slots back in and MacKinnon carries the matchup edge he flashed Tuesday into a second straight game against the same opponent.

Dallas isn’t without answers — Seguin’s recent form and a desperate response after a tough week give the Stars a path — but the market’s confidence in Colorado reflects a team that just proved it could win this exact matchup without two key players. For bettors weighing the NHL odds on this one, the number is telling a fairly clear story heading into puck drop.