Nathan MacKinnon, Brandon Hagel Lead 3 Best NHL Player Props to Back on October 13

Tuesday’s NHL slate is loaded, and three names are jumping off the prop board for very different reasons: a generational superstar riding a scoring heater, a brand-new teammate duo on the Lightning’s blue line and top wing playing in the same building, and a case for betting the under when the market gets a little too hot on a veteran. This is the best-of-the-board mix — three strong plays regardless of what kind of prop they are, because the goal here is simple: find the numbers that are actually beatable.

Here’s where the value is hiding tonight.

Nathan MacKinnon Over Shots on Goal

MacKinnon has been an absolute buzzsaw to start the season, sitting tied for sixth in the NHL in both goals (5) and points (10) through five games. He’s fired at least two goals in back-to-back outings, including a two-goal, eight-shot night in Saturday’s loss to Toronto, and he’s piled up 23 shots on goal already this year — that’s an average north of 4.5 shots per game for a player who simply doesn’t take shifts off.

The projection here sits at 3.36 shots on goal, with a model-backed 63% probability of clearing the 3+ mark. Given that MacKinnon has hit at least four shots in three of his five games and only dipped below that total once, the over on his shots prop looks like one of the stronger plays on the board tonight as Colorado heads to Dallas. He logs nearly 20 minutes a night in his usual workhorse top-line role, and volume shooters like him are exactly the type of player that makes shots props profitable over a long season.

John Carlson Under Shots on Goal

Carlson’s situation looks a little different these days — he was dealt to the Lightning this summer on a two-year, $17 million deal, and he’s now patrolling Tampa Bay’s blue line instead of Washington’s. His shot volume has actually ticked down with his new club: he’s averaging 3.0 shots per game across five outings with the Lightning, a number that’s being shaped heavily by matchup and deployment rather than a steady workload.

Books have priced him at -165 to go under 2.5 shots on goal tonight, and that number lines up with how Carlson has looked defensively deployed in a stacked Lightning lineup that already features heavy shot volume up front from guys like Brandon Hagel. Carlson is more of a distributor than a shooter at this stage of his career — he racked up 36 assists to just 10 goals last season — and that pass-first instinct plus a crowded forward group taking the bulk of Tampa Bay’s volume makes the under a sneaky smart lean, especially on the road at a notoriously detail-oriented defensive building in Madison Square Garden.

Brandon Hagel Over Shots on Goal

If there’s a lock on this board, it might be Hagel. He’s been the engine of Tampa Bay’s hot start, co-leading the team with eight points (4 goals, 4 assists) through five games and putting pucks on net at a ridiculous clip — 26 shots already this season, tops among all Lightning forwards at 5.2 shots per game. He just capped a hat trick performance against the Islanders with a four-point night, and he’s riding a four-game point streak with 23 shots over that same stretch.

The projection for tonight sits at 3.19 shots on goal with an 81% probability of clearing 2+, and the underlying trend backs it up hard — Hagel has hit the 2+ shots mark in 95% of his last 20 games. That’s about as close to automatic as a prop gets. He’s riding this volume into a matchup with the Rangers at Madison Square Garden, and nothing in his recent usage suggests any reason for that shot rate to slow down.

Lock These In

Three very different reads on three very different players, but each one is backed by real, recent volume trends rather than a hunch. For bettors shopping lines before puck drop, it’s always worth comparing the NHL odds across a few books to find the best number before locking anything in.

• Nathan MacKinnon OVER 3.5 Shots on Goal (3.36 projected, 63% to hit 3+)
• John Carlson UNDER 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165)
• Brandon Hagel OVER 1.5 Shots on Goal (3.19 projected, 81% to hit 2+, 95% hit rate over last 20 games)

MacKinnon and Hagel give you two of the hottest volume shooters in the league right now, while Carlson’s under provides a nice change of pace against a board that’s otherwise all overs. Check your book for final lines before puck drop.