3 NHL Best-of-the-Board Props to Back on Wednesday, November 11

Wednesday’s NHL board is a three-ring circus, and we brought a ticket to each ring. The Sabres host the Lightning in an early 7:00 PM ET start, the Golden Knights welcome the Mammoth at 9:30 PM ET, and the Predators close the night at 10:00 PM ET in Anaheim. Three games, three shots on goal props, and plenty of reasons to keep the couch warm until the late window.

Shots on goal props are the comfort food of hockey betting. You do not need a goalie to stand on his head or a power play to click. You just need a player who keeps pulling the trigger, and these three do it on a nightly basis.

Trevor Connelly OVER 1.5 Shots on Goal (-140)

Trevor Connelly is the kind of name the books are still catching up to. The Golden Knights winger (#24) has 7 goals and 5 assists through 19 games while averaging 1.79 shots on goal per night, and he logs a steady 14 or so minutes a game. He skates on the top line and works the second power-play unit, which is a great place to be when the puck is looking for a shooter.

His recent game log reads like a metronome. Over his last 10 games he has gone 1, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 0, 1 and 2 shots, clearing 1.5 in five of them and landing on exactly 1 in four more. That is the nature of a number like this, so we are not pretending it is a lock. We are playing it because the projection models love the spot, with Dimers putting the over at roughly 75 percent and a 17 percent edge over the DraftKings price of -140.

The matchup helps too. Vegas is at home against Utah in the late window, and a home team that controls territory tends to hand its top-line wingers extra looks. Connelly needs two shots in 14-plus minutes, and he has been getting there more often than not.

Roman Josi OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120)

When a defenseman leads his team in shots, you know he is not just standing at the blue line admiring the view. Roman Josi (#59) has 47 shots on goal in 17 games for Nashville, which tops the Predators and works out to about 2.8 per night. He plays roughly 25 minutes a game and quarterbacks the power play, so the volume is baked in.

The recent run backs it up. Josi fired 5 shots against Tampa Bay, 6 against Washington and a whopping 8 against San Jose in his last 10, and he has had three or more shots in five of those ten outings. His season line is 20 points on 2 goals and 18 assists, which tells you the offense runs through him whether he is passing or shooting.

Anaheim is a home favorite at -148 on DraftKings, but this is a 6.5 total game, which suggests plenty of puck movement at both ends. Plus, a trailing Nashville team is a shooting Nashville team. Dimers has the over at 57.8 percent. Prices sit around -115 to -120 depending on the book, so check your book before locking it in.

Tage Thompson OVER 3.5 Shots on Goal (Plus Money)

Every card needs a little swagger, and Tage Thompson (#72) is ours. The Sabres center is the engine of Buffalo’s offense with 10 goals and 9 assists in 17 games, and he has taken 70 shots on goal this season, an average of about 4.1 per game. That is comfortably above tonight’s number of 3.5.

He has cleared 3.5 shots in 10 of 17 games this season, which is 59 percent, and the over pays out at plus money. StatMuse lists the over at +138 and the under at -144, while other books have shown the over closer to +120. Either way, you are being paid better than even money on a prop that has hit well over half the time. That is the kind of math we enjoy.

We will be honest about the wobble. Thompson has gone 2, 3 and 2 shots in his last three games, and a few model sites lean toward the under on this particular matchup. But he fired 8 shots at the Kings and 6 each at Toronto and San Jose earlier this month, which shows how quickly a cold stretch can flip. The Lightning are a good team, but Thompson plays nearly 20 minutes on the top line and is the first name Buffalo looks for when it needs a shot. We will take the plus-money price and trust the volume.

Lock These In

Three games, three shooters, and one nice mix of juice and plus money. If you like to see the whole board before you bet, our NHL odds page has the latest numbers, and if you are stacking more than one of these legs in the same ticket, our guide to same game parlays is a good refresher before you build anything. Prices move through the day, so shop around before you bet.

• Trevor Connelly OVER 1.5 shots on goal (-140 at DraftKings)
• Roman Josi OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-120 at DraftKings, check your book)
• Tage Thompson OVER 3.5 shots on goal (about +120 to +138, check your book)

Shots are not goals, and variance loves to crash a good party. But with ice time, role and recent volume all pointing the same way, this is a card worth backing tonight.