3 NHL Best-of-Board Props to Back on October 22

Thursday night’s NHL board is stacked with twelve games, which means plenty of ways to either print money or set it on fire. We went digging for the spots where the numbers and the matchups line up, and the result is a mixed bag of a sniper, a veteran point-producer, and a Winnipeg forward who is due for a little puck luck.

Think of this as a three-course meal: a goal-scoring appetizer in Toronto, a steady main course in Boston, and a late-night dessert in Dallas. Every number below comes from this season’s box scores, so let’s eat.

Auston Matthews Anytime Goal: The Sniper Is on a Heater

Auston Matthews has come out of the gate like he has a grudge against goaltenders. The Toronto center has eight goals and 18 points through 11 games, which ties him for second in the NHL in both categories, and he has six goals over his last six games, going without a goal in only one of them. His shot volume is silly too, with 33 shots on goal so far this season.

The matchup is the cherry on top. The Rangers visit Scotiabank Arena without Igor Shesterkin, and Dylan Garand is projected to get the start in net. Toronto is averaging about 3.6 goals per game over its last ten, and Matthews is around +130 to find the net at FanDuel, a price that feels generous for a guy who already has three power-play goals this year.

One note of caution: the Rangers are 7-3-1 and have allowed just over two goals per game, so this is not a pushover. But when a sniper meets a backup-caliber goalie, plus-money on an anytime goal is a price worth taking. If you like shopping around, a quick look at NHL odds across books can squeeze out a few extra cents.

Steven Stamkos Over 0.5 Points: Old Reliable in Beantown

If Matthews is the fireworks, Steven Stamkos is the slow cooker. The Nashville veteran has cleared 0.5 points in eight of his last ten games and in seven of eight this season, and he has 13 points, including six goals, over that ten-game window. He leads the Predators in scoring, and Nashville’s power play has been humming at better than 31 percent over its last ten games.

Boston is the opponent, and the Bruins are 7-2-1 with David Pastrnak sitting at 12 points, so Nashville is a plus-money underdog at roughly +132 on the moneyline. That is actually good news for a points prop. Underdogs chasing a game lean on their power play and their top line, and Stamkos is the engine of both. He posted two points the last time these teams met, and he has found the scoresheet in all three of his road games this season.

The Predators have been giving up about three goals and nearly 30 shots per game lately, which suggests this one could turn into a track meet rather than a snoozer. In a high-event game, the player who is in the middle of everything for his team is the kind of bet you want in your pocket. Not sure how to read the price on a prop like this? Our guide on how betting odds work will get you up to speed.

Gabriel Vilardi Over 0.5 Points: A Slow Start Meets a Fair Price

Here is the contrarian pick, so buckle up. Gabriel Vilardi has four points, all assists, through nine games, and he has not scored a goal yet, which is not what you expect from a guy who put up 30 goals and 69 points last season. But the process is there. He has put at least two shots on net in six of his last seven games, he is skating over 17 minutes a night, and he picked up an assist in Tuesday’s game at St. Louis.

Winnipeg heads to Dallas at 8:00 PM ET as a plus-money underdog, with the Stars favored at about -195 on the moneyline and a total of 5.5. Dimers has Vilardi going over 0.5 points at a 52.2 percent probability against a best price of around +103, which works out to a 2.9 percent edge. Positive-edge plus-money on a skilled forward whose goal drought has to end at some point is a fun way to close out the evening.

Is it the safest bet on the board? No. But a point at plus money from a top-six forward whose process is better than his results is exactly the kind of thing the market sometimes sleeps on.

Lock These In: Tonight’s Board

That is the menu: a sniper facing a backup goalie, a veteran who almost never goes quiet, and a buy-low play with a numbers-based edge. Odds move, so check your book before you fire, and shop for the best number if you have more than one app. Here are tonight’s three plays:

• Auston Matthews (TOR) Anytime Goal vs. Rangers (around +130)
• Steven Stamkos (NSH) OVER 0.5 Points at Boston (check your book)
• Gabriel Vilardi (WPG) OVER 0.5 Points at Dallas (around +103)

Bet with your head, not your heart, and keep it fun. If one cashes, enjoy it; if all three cash, feel free to tell your friends you saw it coming.