3 Best NHL Player Props to Back on October 9

Friday night’s NHL slate is loaded, and instead of overthinking it, we went out and grabbed the three best plays on the board regardless of category. Goal scorer prop, shots prop, under prop — doesn’t matter. If the number looked soft, it made the cut. Dylan Larkin is heating up in Detroit, Viktor Arvidsson is putting pucks on net at a ridiculous clip in his new sweater, and Zach Werenski gives us a chance to fade a line that’s drifted a little high. Here’s the best of the board for October 9.

Two of these three come out of the Red Wings’ home date with the Seattle Kraken, and the third comes from Columbus hosting Pittsburgh — three different books, three different markets, one simple goal: beat the number.

Dylan Larkin Anytime Goal Scorer (+170)

Larkin missed Detroit’s first two games of the season with an upper-body injury, but he didn’t look rusty in his debut. In Tuesday’s 5-3 win over Ottawa, he scored the go-ahead goal off a feed from Arvidsson and added a power-play assist, good enough to earn First Star honors. He logged 20:41 of ice time and tied for the team lead among forwards with over six minutes of power-play time — this is a guy who’s back in a featured role immediately, not easing in.

Larkin has now recorded a point in his season debut for the 11th time in his career, trailing only Gordie Howe and Steve Yzerman in franchise history for that stat. He’s one goal away in exactly one game played, and at +170 for anytime goal scorer, the market is still pricing him like a guy working his way back rather than a 30-year-old who just posted 34 goals a season ago. With DeBrincat and Raymond buzzing around him and a power play that’s clicking early, the volume is there to back this number.

Seattle is also in the second half of a tough early stretch, and Detroit’s top line controlled play for long stretches against Ottawa. If Larkin is seeing top-six minutes and power-play reps like he did Tuesday, +170 on a goal is generous value.

Viktor Arvidsson Shots on Goal Over 3.0 (+100)

Arvidsson has been a revelation since signing with Detroit, and the shot volume backs it up. He’s fired exactly 3 shots on net in back-to-back games (October 4 and October 6) and has two goals and three points through his first three contests in the Motor City. He scored the power-play goal that opened the scoring Tuesday and set up Larkin’s go-ahead tally minutes later — this is a player getting every opportunity to fire the puck.

His shot model actually lines up well with the anytime goal market too — some books have him sitting around 40% implied goal probability at +205, which tells you the shot attempts are trending the right way. Betting the shots over rather than the goal itself just smooths out the variance while still riding the same trend. He averaged 176 shots on net across 69 games with Boston last season, a full 82-game pace well north of 2 shots per game, and he’s already shooting more aggressively in Detroit’s system through three games.

With the power play humming and Arvidsson getting top-six run next to Larkin, the Over 3.0 on shots feels like the safer way to cash in on the hot start.

Zach Werenski Shots on Goal Under 3.5 (-106)

Werenski is one of the best offensive defensemen in the league — 22 goals and 58 assists a season ago, and he’s already logging massive minutes early this year, including a 30:15 night in his last outing. But shot volume specifically has cooled off. Over his last two games tracked, he’s averaging right around 2.4 shots on net, and in his most recent outing against Utah he was held to zero shots in nearly 32 minutes of ice time.

Werenski racks up points by distributing — he’s got two assists already this season and zero goals — rather than by hammering shots through from the point every night. His shot totals fluctuate heavily game to game depending on how much Columbus controls offensive-zone time, and against a Pittsburgh team that can push pace the other way, this number feels inflated relative to his actual recent trend.

Columbus will also lean on him in all situations — power play, penalty kill, 5-on-5 — which means plenty of ice time isn’t automatically translating to shot attempts when a chunk of those minutes come in a defensive posture. The recent 2.4 average says the under has real juice tonight.

Lock These In

Three different markets, three different games, one night of value. Check NHL odds before you lock anything in, since lines can shift closer to puck drop.

• Dylan Larkin Anytime Goal Scorer OVER 0.5 (+170)
• Viktor Arvidsson Shots on Goal OVER 3.0 (+100)
• Zach Werenski Shots on Goal UNDER 3.5 (-106)

Two hot Red Wings riding a feel-good comeback story and one Blue Jackets workhorse due for a quieter shooting night — that’s the best of the board for Friday.