Packers vs Steelers Prediction: NFL Preseason Week 1 Picks and Odds

The NFL preseason kicks off in earnest on Thursday night when the Green Bay Packers travel to Acrisure Stadium to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, with kickoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET on NFL Network. It is a matchup with a built-in storyline before a single snap is played: Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy spent nearly 13 seasons roaming the Packers sideline, and now he welcomes his old team to Pittsburgh for his preseason debut running the Steelers. Both teams enter with real questions to answer, even if the final score means almost nothing in the standings.

Green Bay is coming off a training camp defined by attrition. Micah Parsons remains on the physically unable to perform list as he continues rehabbing the torn ACL that ended his 2025 season, and edge Jordan Love figures to get real run under center as the Packers try to build continuity behind an offensive line that has its own bumps and bruises. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is beginning a new era under McCarthy with 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers still atop the depth chart, but the more interesting story in Latrobe has been what happens behind him, with a genuine competition brewing for the No. 2 quarterback job.

Why the Line Keeps Moving on This One

Preseason markets are notoriously thin, and this game is a good example of why. Early in the week DraftKings had Green Bay favored by 1.5 points with a moneyline of Packers -130 and Steelers +110, and the total sat around 38.5. By Wednesday, some books had flipped the number entirely, with Steelers -1.5 and moneylines closer to a coin flip, while prediction markets like Kalshi had Green Bay sitting around 56-58 percent to win outright. That kind of back-and-forth is common for preseason openers, when oddsmakers are working with limited information about who actually plays meaningful snaps and for how long. The total has bounced between 36.5 and 39.5 depending on the shop, another sign that nobody is fully confident in how these coaching staffs plan to use their rosters.

The betting public should treat these preseason numbers as soft. Sharp action in August is rare, and the lines are more a reflection of roster usage plans leaking out of camp than of team quality. Bettors looking to shop for the best number should compare a few sportsbook promo codes before placing anything, since even a half-point can matter once the market settles. Reports indicate Matt LaFleur intends to play his Packers starters, including Jordan Love, for at least a series or two, while McCarthy has been far more cautious with Rodgers, who has already said he does not see much benefit in playing preseason snaps at this stage of his career.

Camp Storylines Shaping Thursday Night

Green Bay’s roster has taken some hits over the past few weeks. Parsons is not the only name missing valuable practice time; tight end Luke Musgrave has been sidelined by a neck injury the team is still evaluating, running back Josh Jacobs has been in and out with a groin issue, and cornerback Keisean Nixon has battled a hamstring problem that opened the door for rookie second-round pick Brandon Cisse to log first-team reps. On the positive side, tight end Tucker Kraft is back on the practice field after last November’s ACL tear and looking ahead of schedule, while receivers Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed have both returned from minor injuries after missing time following Family Night. Right tackle Zach Tom, who partially tore his patellar tendon late last season, has stated flatly that playing Week 1 of the regular season “is not an option” — meaning he is not one — he is playing, full stop, which speaks to how the Packers view their offensive line depth heading into the year.

Pittsburgh’s camp has centered almost entirely on the quarterback room behind Rodgers. Mason Rudolph took the first crack at second-team reps on Day 1 of camp and has largely held that ground, putting him ahead of 2025 sixth-round pick Will Howard, who missed most of his rookie season on injured reserve with a fractured pinkie. Rookie Drew Allar has had a mixed camp, including a rough opening practice with multiple interceptions before rebounding with a touchdown throw in red-zone work. McCarthy has said he plans to use three separate groups on offense Thursday, with the first unit playing a series or two before Pittsburgh rotates through its depth — which should give fans an extended look at all three young arms. On the injury side, cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and safety Jalen Ramsey both opened camp on the PUP list, while receivers DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. have each missed practice time in the final week before the opener, pushing rookie receiver Germie Bernard into extended first-team reps as Pittsburgh evaluates its receiving corps beyond the top two names. Offensive tackle Broderick Jones, who underwent spinal fusion surgery this offseason, has been cleared and working at left tackle with the second unit, a genuinely good sign for Pittsburgh’s line depth.

Both teams also have real jobs on the line for players clinging to the back of the 53-man roster. Preseason openers like this one matter far more to fringe roster candidates than to established starters, and coaches from both sidelines will be watching backup running backs, depth receivers, and offensive line reserves as closely as anything else on the field Thursday night. Fans looking to follow along can find the game on NFL Network, and those interested in wagering should check our NFL betting guide for tips on navigating preseason markets specifically.

Prediction and Best Bet

With LaFleur committed to playing Love and the starting offense for at least a series, and McCarthy signaling a much lighter workload for Rodgers, Green Bay should have the early-game talent advantage even in a preseason opener. Pittsburgh’s most experienced hand under center, Rudolph, gives the Steelers a reasonable floor once the rotation shifts, but the gap between Green Bay’s first unit and Pittsburgh’s early rotation is the difference-maker in the opening stretch. Expect a game that starts competitive before Green Bay’s continuity on offense pulls it away in the second half behind backup snaps.

• Prediction: Packers 20, Steelers 13
• Best Bet: Packers on the moneyline

This is the best bet because Green Bay’s plan to play its starters for real snaps gives it a clear structural edge over a Pittsburgh approach built around evaluating three unproven quarterbacks in a rotation. Preseason lines are thin enough that shopping for the best number is worthwhile, and bettors new to wagering markets can compare offers from DraftKings promo code deals or a FanDuel promo code before kickoff. Pennsylvania bettors specifically can also browse our Pennsylvania sportsbooks guide for legal options in the state hosting Thursday’s game, while those wanting deeper market context can reference our how betting odds work primer. The roster usage plans reported out of both camps point squarely toward Green Bay controlling the first half and cruising from there.