Colts vs. Patriots Prediction: Preseason Week 1 Best Bet at Gillette Stadium

Preseason football finally arrives in Foxborough on Thursday night, with the Indianapolis Colts traveling to Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots in each team’s 2026 preseason opener. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, and while neither team will lean on its top-line starters for long, there’s plenty of substance buried in this one for anyone trying to get an early read on both rosters. The Colts arrive fresh off joint practices with New England earlier in the week, and head coach Shane Steichen has already confirmed a “slew” of starters will sit out. The Patriots, coming off a season that ended with Drake Maye as NFL MVP runner-up, are taking a similarly cautious approach with their top talent.

That means Thursday’s action will be dominated by roster-bubble players fighting for real 53-man spots, along with a notable quarterback audition in Indianapolis. It won’t look like a normal NFL broadcast, but for bettors and fans trying to get a jump on training camp storylines, this is one of the more informative preseason openers of the week. Anyone looking to get a bet down should check out our NFL odds hub for the latest lines before kickoff.

Why the Numbers Are Still Finding Their Footing

The Colts have opened as short favorites, with spreads ranging from -2.5 to -1.5 depending on the book, and moneyline prices sitting between -125 and -150 on Indianapolis against +105 to +125 for New England. The total has settled in a range of 36.5 to 38.5, reflecting the reality that both teams plan to rest key starters for extended stretches. Books tend to shade preseason lines conservatively because roster usage is such a moving target — a coach’s plan can change overnight, and backup units producing points doesn’t always track with how either team’s regular-season offense will look. Bettors treating preseason lines the same way they’d treat a Week 10 number are missing the point; these are thin markets built more around depth-chart competition than final scores. Our NFL betting guide is a useful primer for navigating soft preseason numbers like these.

Line movement in preseason games is often driven by news about who’s playing and for how long, rather than film study or matchup analysis. With Steichen already confirming heavy rotation and Patriots coach Mike Vrabel taking a similarly measured approach with his top players, expect any shifts between now and kickoff to hinge on last-minute inactive lists rather than anything resembling a traditional handicapping factor. Bettors comparing books for the best number should check our list of the top sportsbook promo codes before placing a wager.

The Real Storylines Worth Watching

The headline attraction for Indianapolis is Anthony Richardson Sr., who will start at quarterback and play the entire first half before Riley Leonard takes over. Daniel Jones, the presumptive Week 1 starter, will not play in the Colts’ first two preseason games as the team prioritizes keeping him fresh. That leaves Richardson and Leonard to duke it out for the backup job, and Thursday represents Richardson’s first extended game action since the 2025 preseason — a meaningful data point after a career that’s been defined by injury interruptions and inconsistency. The two will flip roles next week against Atlanta, with Leonard drawing the start.

Elsewhere for Indianapolis, seventh-round running back Seth McGowan out of Kentucky has turned heads in camp with his power running style, and Thursday will be the first real test of how he handles contact against unfamiliar defenders rather than practice-squad tacklers who pull up before the whistle. Offensive lineman Dalton Tucker, who has been working at backup center behind starter Tanor Bortolini after playing guard his first two seasons, is another name general manager Chris Ballard flagged as a priority position to solidify. On defense, linebacker Bryce Boettcher has flashed as a blitzer with the Oregon product’s burst standing out in camp reps, while cornerback Mekhi Blackmon and Johnathan Edwards should see extended snaps with veteran Cam Taylor-Britt suspended for the regular-season opener.

New England’s night looks different by design. Drake Maye isn’t expected to suit up, and neither are top backs Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson or Terrell Jennings, which opens the door for newly signed running back Hassan Haskins — a 2022 fourth-round pick claimed off Tennessee’s roster this week — to get early carries behind Lan Larison and rookie Jam Miller. At quarterback, Tommy DeVito remains the favorite to serve as Maye’s primary backup, but sixth-round rookie Behren Morton has quietly built a case throughout camp to stick as the No. 3 arm, a battle Thursday’s snaps could meaningfully influence. Up front, guard depth is thin behind the projected starting five, with Andrew Rupcich and James Hudson III as the top interior backups getting real audition snaps. At linebacker, Chad Muma has taken over as the top backup behind Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss, pushing veteran K.J. Britt down the pecking order — a shift Thursday’s action could either reinforce or complicate.

Both rosters also feature receiver battles worth tracking. For the Colts, Ashton Dulin remains the favorite for the WR3 role behind Alec Pierce and Josh Downs, but Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has made things interesting with his size and vertical speed over the past week of camp. If both play extended snaps Thursday, it’s a signal the competition is closer than advertised. Bettors who like betting player-specific markets throughout the preseason can browse our player prop search tool for additional angles as rosters take shape.

Prediction and Best Bet

With Indianapolis committing real first-half snaps to Anthony Richardson and running an established backup quarterback plan, while New England leans on a rawer group at running back and receiver, the Colts should have a slight structural edge in a game where offensive rhythm from backups often decides preseason outcomes. Expect a low-scoring, mistake-filled affair typical of preseason openers, with Indianapolis’s early quarterback continuity paying off just enough to secure a narrow win.

• Prediction: Colts 20, Patriots 16
• Best Bet: Colts on the moneyline

The best value here is the moneyline rather than the spread — Richardson playing a full half gives Indianapolis a real offensive plan while New England’s approach spreads reps across more unproven pieces, and in a game this unpredictable, backing the side with the clearer on-field structure is the safer path to cashing a ticket. For readers new to betting mechanics like this one, our how betting odds work guide breaks down moneyline pricing in plain terms.