2026 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Sets the Pace, But This Race Is Loaded

The NFL MVP market is already buzzing months before Week 1, and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has claimed the top spot on every major board. But with Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes, and reigning winner Matthew Stafford all bunched up behind him, this is shaping up to be one of the more wide-open MVP races in recent memory.

Josh Allen Is the Man to Beat (Again)

Allen sits at +600 at DraftKings, with some books as tight as +550. That works out to roughly a 14% implied chance of winning his second career MVP, and it’s not hard to see why oddsmakers keep gravitating back to him. He already has one trophy from 2024, when he beat out Lamar Jackson in a tight vote, and he followed that up by finishing third in balloting this past season. Buffalo’s offense runs through him in every phase — as a passer, a runner, and increasingly as the guy who bails the Bills out when the supporting cast comes up short. Books have installed him as the favorite basically since the moment last season ended, and nothing that’s happened this offseason has moved him off that perch.

The gap between Allen and the field isn’t massive, though. Four of the next five names on the board are former MVP winners themselves, which tells you this market is stacked with proven commodities rather than speculative breakout picks.

Top Contenders

Lamar Jackson checks in at +750, chasing his third career MVP after already winning in 2019 and 2023. He’s the only two-time winner in this field, and Baltimore’s offense remains one of the league’s most explosive when he’s healthy and the Ravens are competing for the AFC North. Right behind him is Drake Maye at +850, and there’s a real argument he’s the sharpest bet on the board — a lot of voters and analysts felt Maye deserved serious consideration last season before Stafford ultimately took home the hardware. New England’s continued development under him only strengthens that case heading into this year.

Joe Burrow sits at +1000, still touting one of the most dangerous arms in football when Cincinnati’s offensive line and defense hold up their end. Patrick Mahomes is priced at +1100 across most books, and that number is doing a lot of work — he’s coming back from a torn ACL suffered in Week 15 of the 2025 season, yet he’s still pulling in outsized betting money relative to his ticket count. At BetMGM, Mahomes has landed 22.6% of early dollars wagered on the MVP market despite representing only about 6% of total bets, which tells you sharp money isn’t fully buying the discount on a former two-time winner.

Mahomes is generating nearly four times his ticket share in total dollars bet — a classic signal that bigger, more informed bets are landing on him at a discount.

Justin Herbert rounds out the group at +1100, with Dak Prescott (+1300), Matthew Stafford (+1400), Jordan Love (+1500), and Trevor Lawrence (+1500) filling out the rest of the top tier. Stafford’s number is particularly notable given he’s the guy defending the crown — he opened at a staggering +5000 last preseason before running away with the award, a reminder of just how unpredictable this race can be from one year to the next.

Why Quarterbacks Keep Sweeping This Award

It’s not close. Every name inside the current top 20 or so on the board plays quarterback, and the first skill-position player doesn’t show up until well down the list — Puka Nacua checks in around +10000 at some shops, with Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson in a similar range at others. That’s not an accident. MVP voting has leaned almost exclusively toward quarterbacks for the better part of two decades because their fingerprints are on every offensive snap, and the award has increasingly become a proxy for “best quarterback on a good team” rather than a true best-player honor.

That dynamic makes narrative and team success just as important as raw stats when handicapping this market. A quarterback putting up huge numbers on a non-playoff team almost never wins; a quarterback who’s merely very good but leads a top-two seed frequently does. That’s part of why Stafford’s Rams run mattered so much last year, and it’s exactly the swing factor that could separate Allen, Jackson, and Maye once the season actually kicks off.

The Best Bet

Betting the favorite in a market this deep rarely offers great value, but Allen’s blend of talent, offensive control, and Buffalo’s win-now roster makes him a defensible anchor at +600. The better price, though, might be Drake Maye at +850 — he’s young, ascending, already has a taste of near-MVP recognition, and New England’s trajectory suggests last year wasn’t a fluke.

• Pick: Josh Allen +600
• Value alternative: Drake Maye +850

Either way, keep an eye on how training camp battles and early-season Super Bowl odds shift team-strength narratives — MVP markets tend to move fast once real football starts, and locking in a number now beats chasing shorter odds in Week 6. For a broader primer on how these markets work before the season gets underway, our futures betting guide is worth a read.