Warren Buffett Says Prediction Markets Are Gambling, Not Investing — What That Means If You Play on Kalshi or Polymarket

Warren Buffett has seen a lot in his six decades of investing. He has watched markets boom, crash, and boom again. But speaking to CNBC at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting last weekend, the legendary investor said something that should catch the attention of anyone who has ever placed a contract on Kalshi or Polymarket: we are currently living through the most gambling-obsessed era in financial market history.

“We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now,” Buffett said. “The casino has gotten very attractive.”

What Buffett Actually Said About Prediction Markets

Buffett’s comments were part of a broader critique of short-term speculative behavior in financial markets. He has long compared the stock market to “a church with a casino attached,” but his remarks at this year’s meeting made clear that he believes the casino side has never been more crowded. He was direct about one-day options trading and prediction markets in particular.

“If you’re buying one-day options or selling them, I mean, that’s not investing, it’s not speculating — it’s gambling, just totally,” Buffett told CNBC. He added that the motivation defies explanation: “Nobody can explain why they’re buying an option for one day.”

He also pointed to a recent federal case as evidence that prediction markets are especially vulnerable to manipulation. A U.S. Army soldier was charged by the Department of Justice with insider trading after allegedly using classified military intelligence about a U.S. operation targeting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to place bets on a prediction market, reportedly netting around $400,000. For Buffett, this kind of behavior is a symptom of the speculative fever he sees gripping markets right now.

Is He Talking About Kalshi and Polymarket Specifically?

Buffett did not call out Kalshi or Polymarket by name. His comments were directed broadly at the culture of short-term speculation that has taken hold across financial markets. But prediction markets sit squarely in his line of fire. These platforms operate somewhat like betting exchanges, where users take positions against each other on the outcomes of real-world events — elections, economic decisions, sporting results — rather than against a house. The world’s most celebrated long-term investor thinks that is gambling, full stop.

That framing will sting for prediction market advocates who have long argued these platforms serve a legitimate purpose — aggregating information, surfacing crowd wisdom on real-world outcomes, and providing a financial incentive for accuracy. Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket had issued a public response to Buffett’s remarks at the time of writing.

Does Buffett Have a Point?

Here is where things get interesting, because Buffett is not entirely wrong — and he is not entirely right, either. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket do involve staking money on uncertain future outcomes. Users are betting on what they think will happen, and they win or lose real money based on whether they are correct. That is, by any reasonable definition, a form of gambling.

At the same time, there is a meaningful distinction between placing a contract because you have done genuine research and believe you have an informational edge — and placing a one-day option on a stock simply because you want the adrenaline hit. Buffett’s critique is most squarely aimed at the latter. The best prediction market users would argue their activity looks more like disciplined research than a slot machine session.

But Buffett’s deeper point — that prices for speculative assets “will look very silly” in hindsight when the mood shifts — is a useful reminder for anyone who has let prediction market wins convince them they have permanently cracked the code.

What This Actually Means for Everyday Users

If you are an active user of Kalshi or Polymarket, Buffett’s comments do not change the legality of what you are doing, and they are not a regulatory warning. He is one investor expressing a long-held philosophical view — the same view he has held about derivatives, options, and any short-term trading strategy for decades. He has been consistent on this point across multiple market cycles.

What his comments are useful for is a gut check. Are you using these platforms because you have a genuine edge on a specific outcome — strong knowledge of politics, economics, or a particular domain — or are you using them because the interface is fun and the dopamine hits feel good? The first approach has at least a theoretical grounding. The second is pretty much what Buffett is describing when he says gambling.

The prediction market space is growing fast, and it is attracting scrutiny from regulators, from traditional finance figures like Buffett, and from federal prosecutors who have already brought insider trading charges against at least one user. Staying informed about how these platforms are perceived and where regulations may head is worth the effort if you plan to keep playing on them.