Minnesota Could Be Next to Ban Prediction Markets — What the 56-10 Senate Vote Means for Kalshi and Polymarket Users There

The Minnesota Senate delivered one of the clearest signals yet that states are not waiting for federal regulators to act on prediction markets. On April 30, 2026, senators voted 56-10 — a sweeping bipartisan supermajority — to pass legislation that would ban wagering on prediction market platforms within the state. If the bill clears the House and reaches the governor’s desk, residents who use Kalshi, Polymarket, or Robinhood’s event contracts could find themselves locked out by geolocation enforcement with very little warning.

What the Bill Actually Bans

This is not a sports-specific measure. The legislation, introduced as an amendment to a public safety bill by Sen. John Marty of Roseville, targets a wide range of prediction market contract categories that go well beyond game outcomes. Under the bill’s scope, wagers on weather outcomes, events in popular culture, war, and death would all be prohibited. That scope is significant because those categories — particularly pop culture, geopolitical, and mortality-related markets — are among the most traded on Polymarket, which has built its reputation on real-world event contracts that traditional sportsbooks do not touch.

Sen. Marty’s argument is straightforward: Kalshi and Polymarket are not currently covered under Minnesota’s existing gambling statutes, which creates a gap that invites unregulated activity. He has also cited the potential for insider-trading-style behavior, where participants with advance knowledge of an event could profit from it in ways that would be illegal in securities markets. The bill would not regulate these platforms — it would make them outright illegal for Minnesota residents, with no licensing pathway provided.

Which Platforms Are Most Exposed

Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest prediction market platforms operating in the United States, and both would bear the brunt of any enforcement in Minnesota. Kalshi operates as a federally registered designated contract market under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which it has argued gives it authority to offer event contracts nationwide. Polymarket, while based offshore, is accessible to U.S. users in many states and has seen explosive growth in trading volume over the past two years.

Robinhood, which added prediction market event contracts to its platform in recent months, would also be affected. Unlike traditional sportsbooks — which operate under state-issued licenses and already use geolocation technology to restrict access in states where they are not approved — prediction market platforms have largely relied on the federal regulatory framework, or the absence of explicit state bans, to justify broad availability. Minnesota’s bill would remove that ambiguity entirely.

It is worth noting that Minnesota does not currently have licensed online casino gambling or a legal sports betting market. For comparison, residents who want to bet on sports through a regulated operator — using a platform like those covered in our DraftKings review or FanDuel review — currently have no legal option to do so in-state. Prediction markets exist in a separate legal category, but the same logic applies: absent a state regulatory framework, the default outcome here is prohibition rather than oversight.

Where the House Stands — and Why the Path Is Murky

The 56-10 Senate vote is a dramatic margin, but the bill’s fate in the Minnesota House is far less certain. The legislation has attracted bipartisan support among House members, but GOP leadership has reportedly moved to block it. That dynamic — widespread member support running into leadership resistance — is not unusual at the Minnesota Capitol, and observers have noted that bills with strong cross-party backing have a way of staying alive longer than expected. The session calendar adds pressure: if the bill does not advance before the legislative session ends, it would need to be reintroduced.

The national landscape is also shifting quickly. The CFTC’s public comment period on prediction market regulation closed on May 1, 2026 — just one day after the Minnesota Senate vote. A bipartisan coalition of 41 state attorneys general submitted comments to the CFTC urging that states retain jurisdiction over prediction markets, framing the issue as one of consumer protection and state sovereignty. That coalition’s position aligns closely with what Minnesota’s bill is attempting to accomplish through direct legislation. Whether federal action moves faster than state bans remains to be seen, but Minnesota is clearly not the only jurisdiction watching this space closely. Nevada, Ohio, Massachusetts, New York, and others have already taken enforcement steps of their own.

What Minnesota Users Should Do Right Now

There is no signed law yet. The Senate passed this bill, but it still needs House approval and a governor’s signature before it has any legal effect. That said, users with active positions on Kalshi or Polymarket should treat this as a situation that warrants close attention, not a reason to wait and see. Here is the practical picture for anyone in Minnesota currently using these platforms.

First, watch the House vote closely. If the bill clears the House and moves to the governor, the timeline from passage to enforcement can be short. Prediction market platforms that have faced state-level bans in other jurisdictions have typically responded by implementing geolocation blocks relatively quickly — sometimes within days of a law taking effect. Second, if you have open positions that are likely to resolve in your favor, consider timing your redemptions with the legislative calendar in mind. Waiting until a ban is signed and in effect could mean scrambling to withdraw under time pressure. Third, do not move funds or close positions based on the Senate vote alone — again, this is not yet law, and the House outcome is genuinely uncertain.

The broader takeaway is that the regulatory environment for prediction markets in the United States is changing fast. What was legal or tolerated in a given state six months ago may not be the case six months from now. Minnesota’s 56-10 Senate vote is one of the strongest signals yet that state legislators are prepared to act aggressively — and that federal inaction from the CFTC will not indefinitely shield these platforms from state-level restrictions. For users in Minnesota, the time to pay attention is now, before a potential ban becomes law.