Michigan Judge Bars Kalshi From Offering Sports Prediction Markets, Threatens $120,000-Per-Day Fines for Noncompliance

A Michigan judge granted the state a temporary restraining order against KalshiEX, LLC on June 30, immediately barring the prediction market operator from offering sports event contracts to Michigan residents. The order, secured by Attorney General Dana Nessel at the request of the Michigan Gaming Control Board, prohibits Kalshi from advertising or facilitating online sports wagering in the state and threatens $120,000 in daily fines if the company fails to implement required geolocation technology.

The ruling marks a significant legal setback for Kalshi, which had previously attempted to move the case to federal court — arguing its contracts fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That effort failed when the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan remanded the case back to state court last week, allowing the MGCB to proceed with its temporary restraining order request.

What the Court Order Means for Kalshi

Under the terms of the TRO, effective immediately and lasting 14 days, Kalshi must stop offering, advertising, or facilitating any form of internet sports betting to Michigan residents. The company is also required to deploy a state-approved, third-party geolocation solution consistent with MGCB Technical Bulletin No. 2024-03 to ensure Michigan users cannot access sports markets on the platform.

If Kalshi fails to meet those requirements, the court has authorized a fine of $120,000 per day for noncompliance — a figure the MGCB said is designed to compel immediate action. Anecdotal reports following the ruling indicated that Michigan users were already unable to access sports event contracts on Kalshi.

Kalshi did not take the ruling quietly. The company said in a statement that it “disagrees with the state’s decision and will fight it in court,” adding that “Kalshi is subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction” and characterizing the state’s action as an effort to protect established gambling monopolies rather than consumers. The company said it would implement restrictions in the interim while pursuing its appeal.

The Broader Regulatory War

Michigan is one of more than a dozen states that have moved to restrict or ban prediction market platforms, arguing that sports event contracts are a form of online sports betting that must be regulated at the state level. The CFTC has countered by suing nine of those states, insisting federal law gives it exclusive authority over derivative markets.

The explosive growth of prediction markets has sharpened the conflict. Monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket surged from roughly $28 billion in June 2025 to nearly $220 billion a year later, driven almost entirely by sports contracts. That growth has drawn the attention of both regulators and established gambling operators, who have lobbied Congress to clarify that sports event contracts fall outside the CFTC’s jurisdiction.

For Michigan residents, the immediate effect is straightforward: sports prediction market access through Kalshi is blocked while the legal challenge works its way through the courts. The outcome could have significant implications for sports betting regulation nationwide. Platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, which operate under state licensing, have long argued that prediction markets benefit from an unfair regulatory arbitrage — a point that Michigan regulators appear to agree with. The DFS and prediction market landscape is shifting rapidly as this legal battle intensifies.