Yankees vs Royals Prediction: Can Cole Schlittler Keep His Magical Season Going Against New York?

It might be the most compelling pitching matchup on Tuesday’s MLB slate that most people are not talking about. The New York Yankees, currently 32-22 and firmly in the thick of the AL East race, travel to Kauffman Stadium to take on a Kansas City Royals club that is 22-32 and looking up at .500 from a significant distance. But do not let those records fool you. The Yankees will face a pitcher on Tuesday night who has been one of the most dominant starters in baseball over the first two months of the season.

Cole Schlittler takes the mound for Kansas City carrying a 6-2 record and an obscene 1.50 ERA. That is not a misprint. The right-hander has been a revelation for the Royals, and facing the Yankees on Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET gives him a chance to add a signature name to his victim list. On the other side, New York counters with Brian Falter, who comes in with a 9.82 ERA and a 0-1 record. Yeah, that is not a misprint either.

Yankees Favored, but Schlittler Changes Everything

New York opens as a heavy -105 moneyline favorite, with the total set at 9 runs. Kansas City comes back at +172, which is a massive underdog price for a team with a pitcher sporting a 1.50 ERA on the mound. The total at 9 feels slightly elevated given Schlittler’s run-prevention ability, but if Falter gets knocked around early, this game could go over quickly.

Here is the value angle: Schlittler at +172 as an implied underdog while throwing better numbers than virtually every pitcher in baseball is a pricing inefficiency the market may not fully respect. The Yankees send Falter with a nearly 10.00 ERA, and while Kansas City’s offense has not been reliable (22-32 overall, scoring 210 runs in 54 games), they have gone 9-3 in their last 12 games against left-handed opponents, suggesting they can hit when facing a southpaw who does not have his stuff. Falter is not a difficult pitcher to solve. The under at 9 also has merit given Schlittler should hold the Yankees in check for at least five or six innings.

The Schlittler Factor and a Yankees Lineup That Has Been Rolling

Cole Schlittler has been one of the best young arms nobody outside of Kansas City has been talking about this year. The 6-2 record with a 1.50 ERA in a full starter’s workload is legitimate stuff. He consistently sequences his pitches well, limits walks, and has an ability to generate ground balls and punchouts in equal measure. Tuesday represents the biggest test of his season, and the Yankees are as dangerous a lineup as he will face.

New York comes in at 32-22, sitting 3.5 games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East and very much in the division race. The Yankees have a plus-68 run differential, the best in the American League, and their lineup features legitimate threats from top to bottom. Cody Bellinger hit a solo homer on Monday, his contribution in a 4-3 walk-off win over the Royals in the last series game. Anthony Volpe and Jose Caballero provide speed and versatility in the middle infield. Bobby Witt Jr. on the Kansas City side, not to be confused with New York’s roster, is worth noting as he hit his eighth homer of the season in Monday’s loss.

The Yankees’ win Monday was a dramatic one. They trailed heading into the ninth, Witt launched a go-ahead homer in the eighth to give Kansas City a brief lead, but New York rallied and scored to take the lead before Lucas Erceg blew the save and David Bednar locked it down. Erceg has now blown four saves on the season and has surrendered runs in back-to-back appearances, ballooning his ERA from 3.26 to 5.06. The Kansas City bullpen situation is a legitimate concern when it comes to backing the Royals in late-game scenarios.

Michael Wacha pitched seven quality innings for Kansas City on Monday before getting a no-decision, and the Royals have shown they can hang with better teams when their starting pitching holds up. Schlittler absolutely gives them that chance on Tuesday. The question is whether Kansas City can generate enough offense against the Yankees to support him. At 22-32, this offense has not been reliable, and against a Yankees bullpen that has been very good this year, innings 7 and 8 could be the problem.

Bobby Witt Jr. is the engine for Kansas City, slashing .294/.360/.481 with eight homers, 14 doubles, 24 RBI, and 16 stolen bases on the season. He is a legitimate star who can hurt any pitching staff, including the Yankees. With Falter on the mound, someone like Witt getting multiple at-bats in a game where the Yankees starter struggles early could keep this very interesting through the middle innings. New York’s bullpen, however, is deep and reliable, and if they need to go to relievers after a short Falter start, they have the arms to navigate it.

Yankees also benefit from their lineup’s depth against right-handed pitching, where they are batting .241 collectively this season with a .593 OPS but have significant upside bats who can hit home runs when pitchers leave mistakes in the zone. Schlittler has been good enough all year that mistakes have been rare, but the Yankees’ talent level is the highest test he has seen.

Prediction and Best Bet

Schlittler limits the Yankees through five or six innings, but New York’s bullpen eventually stabilizes after a rocky Falter start. The Royals’ offense is not reliable enough to capitalize on Falter’s expected struggles, and the Yankees eventually take advantage of Kansas City’s shaky closer situation. This feels like a 5-4 or 6-5 game that stays tight early and tilts toward New York late.

• Prediction: New York Yankees 5, Kansas City Royals 3
• Best Bet: Under 9 (-110)

Schlittler will absolutely keep the run-scoring down in his portion of the game. Even if Falter gives up a few early runs, the total can stay under as long as Schlittler is on the mound. The under at 9 in a game featuring arguably the best ERA in baseball going head-to-head with a tough Yankees lineup is a solid lean, especially when Kansas City’s bats have been inconsistent. You can find more MLB angles and compare numbers across books by checking MLB odds before first pitch, and if you want to shop for the best price on the total or moneyline, the odds shopping guide can help you find the most value.